Output rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 after the sharp contraction in the first half of the year
Growth outcomes in the second quarter of 2020 are associated with differences in national containment measures and mobility
The pace of the recovery has slowed
The impact of the pandemic on activity remains severe in some service sectors
There are signs of financial fragilities in some service sectors
Uncertainty about the pandemic is expected to persist for some time
Global trade is slowly recovering, but international travel remains at very low levels
Selected indicators about bank deposits
The resurgence of the virus is hitting activity in affected countries
Labour market conditions are recovering slowly
Lower-skilled and low-wage workers have been particularly affected
Financial market conditions have partly normalised
Growth is projected to remain moderate with long-lasting costs
Labour market conditions are expected to remain subdued
Inflation is projected to remain low
There is considerable uncertainty around the baseline projection
Non-COVID-19-related import-restrictive measures continue to rise
The global monetary policy stance was eased substantially in the first half of 2020
Changes in the discretionary fiscal stance vary across countries
Fiscal policy is providing considerable support to growth
Government budget deficits and debt will widen
Vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies
Many of the sectors heavily affected by the pandemic are employment-intensive
Further reforms are required to help all workers acquire new skills
Labour productivity gaps between frontier firms and others remain wide
Changes in the composition of energy investment are need to meet environmental objectives
Quarterly model: out-of-sample simulations
The OECD Weekly Tracker: United States
The OECD Weekly Tracker: selected advanced G20 economies in 2020
The OECD Weekly Tracker: emerging G20 economies in 2020
Most recent predictions of the OECD Weekly Tracker
Google search intensities per spending categories
A substantial portion of otherwise viable firms is predicted to become distressed
The impact of the shock is heterogeneous across types of sectors and firms
Firms’ leverage is expected to increase in the aftermath of the crisis
A large portion of otherwise viable firms will find it hard to service their debt
High financial leverage decreases investment
Household inflation expectations tend to exceed realised inflation and targets
Persistent deflation has taken place for some categories of goods and services
Link between mobility and GDP forecast revisions at a quarterly frequency for the first and second quarters of 2020
Percentage of countries at different stringency levels for containment policies
The estimated effect of containment policies and natural caution on mobility
Median and interquartile range for the effective reproduction rate (R)
Effect of containment policies and public health policies on (logged) R
Percentage of countries at different stringency levels for testing and contact tracing
Argentina: Money supply and exchange rate
Australia: Exports and recovery
Austria: Recovery and budget deficit
Belgium: Saving and recovery
Brazil: Economic activity and confidence
Brazil: Fiscal policy and interest rates
Bulgaria: Employment and lockdown
Canada: Recovery and confidence
Canada: Economic activity and unemployment
Chile: Investment and labour market
China: Economic activity and trade
China: Lending rates and investment
Colombia: Recovery and labour market
Costa Rica: Risk spread and interest payments
Czech Republic: COVID-19 and recovery
Denmark: Employment and exports
Estonia: Recovery and unemployment
Euro area: Recovery and pandemic impact
Euro area: Services and fiscal policy
Finland: COVID-19 and unemployment
France: Recovery and sanitary restrictions
France: Unemployment and saving
Germany: Recovery and trade
Germany: COVID-19 and labour market
Greece: Exports and COVID-19
Hungary: Labour market and confidence
Iceland: Exports and unemployment
India: Inflation and economic shock
India: Unemployment and balance of payments
Indonesia: Lockdown and tourism
Indonesia: Confidence and monetary policy
Ireland: Economic growth and fiscal policy
Israel: Consumption and labour market
Italy: Industrial production and labour market
Italy: Confidence and recovery
Japan: Consumption and exports
Japan: Wages and government expenditure
Korea: Mobility and exports
Latvia: Consumption and recovery
Lithuania: Unemployment and unemployment
Luxembourg: Unemployment and households savings
Mexico: Exports and remittances
Netherlands: Recovery and unemployment
New Zealand: Card spending and economic activity
Norway: Recovery and unemployment
Poland: Recovery and unemployment
Portugal: Recovery and employment
Romania: Economic activity and balance of payments
Slovak Republic: Car production and inflation
Slovenia: COVID-19 and economic activity
South Africa: Economic activity and confidence
Spain: Recovery and economic activity
Sweden: Labour market and card spending
Switzerland: Labour market and economic activity
Turkey: Economic shock and recovery
United Kingdom: Investment and mobility
United Kingdom: Unemployment and fiscal measures
United States: COVID-19 and labour market
United States: Fiscal policy and financial conditions
Tunisia: Economic activity and balance of payments
Tunisia: Tourism and inflation