Fertility rates currently average 1.67 across OECD countries, well below the level that ensures population replacement. The trend to fewer children has been going on since the late 1950s, but stopped around the turn of century on average. The fall in fertility rates reflected changes in individuals’ lifestyle preferences, in family formation, and in the constraints of everyday living, such as those driven by labour market insecurity, difficulties in finding suitable housing and unaffordable childcare.

Remaining life expectancy at 65 significantly contributes to well-being at older ages. It also influences the finances of retirement-income systems. In 2015‑20, on average in OECD countries, women aged 65 could expect to live an additional 21.3 years, which is forecast to increase to 25.2 years by 2060‑65. Men of the same age could expect to live 18.1 more years in 2015‑20, with a projected increase of 4.5 years by 2060‑65 to reach about 22.5 years. Gender gaps are therefore expected to decrease slightly over the next 45 years (from 3.3 to 2.7 years on average in OECD countries). However, the improvement in remaining life expectancy at age 65 has recently slowed from a period of fast longevity gains (Box 1.1, Chapter 1). This slowdown began around 2010, for both men and women, and represents a structural break in the series. Between the mid‑1990s and 2010 the increase in life expectancy at age 65 was fast at around 1.6 years for men per decade and 1.4 years for women. Since 2010, this has fallen to 1.3 years for men and 1.1 years for women.

The evolution of old-age to working-age ratios depends on mortality rates, fertility rates and migration. OECD countries have seen prolonged increases in life expectancy that most analysts project to continue, implying an increasing number of older people and most likely of pensioners too.

Recent employment rates have been affected by COVID‑19 (Chapter 1), with the impact felt across all age groups. For those aged 55-64 the employment rate decreased by an average of 1.6 percentage points between 2019 and 2020 (). The greatest decreases were in Chile (‑9.9 percentage points), Colombia (‑7.0 percentage points) and Costa Rica (‑8.0 percentage points). Canada, Mexico, Turkey and the United States were also deeply affected. Conversely in most Central and Eastern European countries, the impact on employment has been lower with employment rates actually increasing. The largest increases were in Hungary (+2.9 percentage points), Poland (+2.3 percentage points) and Slovenia (+1.9 percentage points), with another seven European countries also showing growth of over 1 percentage point Those countries with a smaller decline in employment rates tend to be those that provided greater protection for workers during the COVID‑19 crisis. Yet, the pattern of employment rates across countries and age groups remains broadly structural.

Countries with higher normal retirement ages tend to have higher employer rates for older workers, but there are a few exceptions (). Iceland and Norway have retirement ages of 67 years for both men and women and also have among the highest employment rates for those age 60 to 64, at 75% and 65%, respectively, well above the OECD average of 51%.

The average effective age of labour market exit remained below 64 in 2020 in more than half of OECD countries for men and in more than three‑quarters of them for women. Average exit ages are at 61 years or below for men in Belgium, France, Greece, Luxembourg, the Slovak Republic, Spain and Turkey and at 60.5 years or below for women in Belgium, Colombia, Greece, Hungary, Luxembourg, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey. By contrast, men in Japan and New Zealand withdrew from the labour market after age 68 on average, with women withdrawing after age 65 in Estonia, Japan and New Zealand. In all but six OECD countries, men exit the labour market after women, with the largest difference observed in Colombia (6.4 years). By contrast women in both Estonia and Luxembourg retire around one year later than men.

This indicator measures the remaining life expectancy at the average age of labour market exit. Women can expect to live 26 years or more after exiting the labour market in Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Spain (, Panel B). Similarly, men can expect to survive more than 22 years after labour market exit in the same countries (, Panel A). Women’s remaining life expectancy at the average age of labour market exit was below 21 years in Estonia, Latvia and Mexico, and men’s was below 17 years, in these three countries and in Lithuania.