1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

A cost-of-living squeeze? Distributional implications of rising inflation

Inflation has quickly and significantly increased in most OECD countries since the end of 2021 and further accelerated after Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, mostly driven by surging energy and food prices. Certain categories of households are particularly vulnerable, as large parts of their consumption expenditures are devoted to energy and food. Drawing on national micro-based household budget surveys and on CPI data, this paper provides a quantification of the impact of rising prices on households’ welfare. Declines in household purchasing power between August 2021 and August 2022 are estimated to range from 3% in Japan to 18% in the Czech Republic. This decline is driven by energy prices in most countries, especially Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom, while energy prices play a lesser role in countries where inflation is more broad-based like the Czech Republic and the United States. In all considered countries, inflation weighs relatively more on low than high-income households. Rural households are hit particularly hard, most often more than low-incomes ones, and this is driven by energy price inflation. To cushion vulnerable households from rising inflation, especially from energy prices, these findings call for a careful targeting of income and price support measures, notwithstanding their administrative and logistical complexity, taking into account their effects on economic activity, inflation, and, last but not least, environmental goals.

English

Keywords: energy, distribution, inequality, inflation, policy analysis, purchasing power
JEL: H23: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Q41: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Energy / Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Q48: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Energy / Energy: Government Policy; H12: Public Economics / Structure and Scope of Government / Crisis Management; I3: Health, Education, and Welfare / Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
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