1887

OECD Environment Working Papers

This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected studies on environmental issues prepared for use within the OECD. Authorship is usually collective, but principal authors are named. The papers are generally available only in their original language English or French with a summary in the other if available.

English

Paris-consistent climate change mitigation scenarios

A framework for emissions pathway classification in line with global mitigation objectives

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, governments and economic actors have increasingly been setting greenhouse gas emissions reduction or net zero targets. Amidst risks of delayed action and greenwashing, there is need to understand whether climate related targets and transition plans are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Climate change mitigation scenarios can be used as inputs to design such targets and plans, and as benchmarks to assess progress towards them. In this context, this paper proposes criteria for selecting global climate change mitigation scenarios that can be considered consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goal and emissions objectives, based on state-of-the-art literature on climate science and mitigation scenarios.

English

Keywords: net zero targets, Climate change mitigation scenarios, temperature overshoot, greenhouse gas emissions pathways, Paris Agreement alignment, 1.5°C temperature goal
JEL: Q56: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth; Q54: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; C68: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Computable General Equilibrium Models
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