OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2003
The ninth edition of the OECD Agricultural Outlook analyses how global and domestic forces are shaping agricultural markets over the medium term. Continuing global economic weakness, compounded by drought-induced production adjustments in some countries, and government support policies are conditioning market outcomes in the near term. The interaction of these factors, together with an expected revival of the global economy in 2004 will help shape OECD and world agricultural markets up to 2008. This book provides valuable information on market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products, including sugar on this occasion. It also shows how these are influenced by government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the Agricultural Outlook. Tables provide detailed commodity projections to 2008 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices in OECD countries and selected information on other countries, including China, Argentina, the Russian Federation and Brazil.
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Cereals
Current wheat and coarse grain markets are significantly influenced by extraordinarily low harvests in a number of major producing areas. Droughts in North America and Australia, together with the economic disturbances in Latin America, have resulted in the fifth year in a row of declining global wheat crops (see Box 2). Coarse grain production also significantly declined from the preceding year. At the same time, with consumption hardly being reduced, global stocks have been reduced by another 29 and 33 million tonnes, respectively, with coarse grain stocks at their lowest level since 1983…
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