OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033
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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets.
This Outlook edition reveals important trends. Emerging economies will be pivotal in shaping the global agricultural landscape, with India expected to overtake China as the leading player. Yet calorie intake growth in low-income countries is projected to be only 4%. Agriculture's global greenhouse gas intensity is projected to decline, although direct emissions from agriculture will likely increase by 5%. If food loss and waste could be halved, however, this would have the potential to reduce both global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and the number of undernourished people by 153 million by 2030.
Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain vital for global food security and rural livelihoods. Expected developments should keep real international reference prices on a slightly declining trend over the next ten years, although environmental, social, geopolitical, and economic factors could significantly alter these projections.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Also available in: French
Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects
This chapter presents the key findings for the consumption, production, trade, and prices of major agricultural and fish commodities covered in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for the period 2024 to 2033. It summarises a plausible baseline scenario of the next ten years, based on assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, productivity trends, weather conditions, consumer preferences, and agriculture and trade policy settings. Global agricultural demand is projected to grow more slowly over the coming decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This 20th joint edition features a review the evolution of agricultural markets over the last twenty years, highlighting the increasing importance of emerging economies. While the influence of The People’s Republic of China in global food and agricultural consumption is projected to diminish over the next decade, India and Southeast Asia are expected to gain significance. Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas emissions intensity is projected to decline, as the projected production growth will be based on productivity improvements rather than cultivated land and livestock herd expansions. However, direct emissions are still projected to rise. The chapter also presents a scenario focussing on the impact of food loss and waste reduction on GHG emissions, food security and nutrition.The Outlook emphasises the continued importance of well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets for global food security and rural livelihoods. The expected developments in global demand and supply are projected to keep real international reference prices on a slightly declining trend over the next ten years, yet potential deviations from the underlying environmental, social, geopolitical and economic assumptions would alter the baseline projections.
Also available in: French
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