Global growth is projected to slow further
A variety of high-frequency indicators point to a slowdown
Commodity prices have diverged recently
Retail energy prices have increased much less than wholesale prices, especially in Europe
Contributions of supply- and demand-driven inflation to headline inflation in selected OECD economies
Some factors pushing up inflation prior to the war are now subsiding
Inflation has become increasingly broad-based
Short-term inflation expectations have risen in many economies
Labour markets are tight
Real wages are declining in most economies
Unemployment and inactivity rates have fallen in most OECD economies
Global supply chain pressures have eased but new export orders are declining
Terms-of-trade losses have hit incomes in energy importing economies, especially in Europe
Financial market volatility has increased
Real long-term interest rates have risen sharply in many countries
Financial market conditions have tightened significantly
Corporate bond yields have risen sharply
Global growth is projected to slow and be increasingly imbalanced across regions
Current account imbalances are higher than immediately prior to the pandemic
Periods of high energy expenditures are often associated with a recession
Gas is an important energy source for electricity generation in many European countries
Prolonged gas shortages and greater uncertainty would hit growth and raise inflation in 2023 and 2024
Debt service obligations could surge
Variable-rate mortgages can exacerbate financial risks
Amidst high and volatile sovereign credit risk, capital outflows from emerging‑market economies have risen
Indebtedness is high in many emerging-market economies
The appreciation of the US dollar could exacerbate financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies
The structure of many economies has changed considerably since the late 1990s
The impact of tighter monetary policy varies when all countries act together
Reduced uncertainty and lower commodity prices would strengthen growth and ease inflation
Monetary policy tightening has been fast and highly synchronised
Monetary policy tightening is projected to continue in the coming quarters
Projections of central bank balance sheet reduction
Planned support to energy consumers is costly and largely non-targeted
Fiscal consolidation is projected to be moderate and uneven across countries
Public debt has increased and the cost of new debt is rising
Policy interest rates are expected to remain high in the near term in emerging‑market economies to help reduce inflation
Public debt has risen less in commodity-exporting emerging-market economies
The stock of trade-restricting measures has continued to grow
Some structural policies have larger effects on disposable incomes than GDP
Many countries have considerable scope to improve employment rates for women