The Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 provides an assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels in a context of continued economic risks, uncertainty, and high energy prices. The report is a collaborative effort between the OECD and FAO, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations.

This chapter presents the trends and prospects of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 derived from the medium-term projections of the most globally produced, consumed and traded agricultural and fish commodities. Following a description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections, it highlights the key findings for the consumption, production, trade, and prices of those commodities for the period 2023 to 2032. Agricultural demand is projected to grow more slowly over the coming decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. Production of agricultural commodities is also projected to grow at a slower pace. The reduced growth incentives are not only driven by a weakening global demand for agricultural products but by decelerating productivity growth resulting from increased input prices, notably fertilisers, and tightening of environmental regulations. The expected developments in global demand and supply will keep real agricultural prices on a slightly declining trend over the next decade. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries and for the livelihoods of workers along the food supply chains in food-exporting countries. There is a growing risk that weather variability, animal and plant diseases, changing input prices, macro-economic developments, and other policy uncertainties will lead to deviations in market outcomes from the current projections.

This chapter describes key trends and emerging issues facing the agricultural sector in the six FAO regions, i.e. Asia Pacific (which is split into Developed and East Asia and South and Southeast Asia), Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia, North America, and Latin America and the Caribbean. It highlights the regional aspects of production, consumption, and trade projections for the period 2023-32, and provides background information on key regional issues.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for maize, rice, wheat and other coarse grains. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cereal markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world oilseed markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for soybean, other oilseeds, protein meal, and vegetable oil. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world oilseed markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world sugar markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for sugar beet, sugar cane, sugar, molasses, and high-fructose corn syrup. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world sugar markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world meat markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for beef and veal, pigmeat, poultry, and sheepmeat. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which have implications for world meat markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world dairy markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for milk, fresh dairy products, butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world dairy markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world fish markets for the period 2023-32. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for fish from capture fisheries and aquaculture are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world fish markets over the next ten years.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world biofuel markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for ethanol and biodiesel. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world biofuel markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cotton markets for the period 2023-32. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices developments for cotton. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cotton markets over the next decade.

This chapter provides a market overview and a description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (i.e. field peas, broad beans, chickpeas, lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (i.e. mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It then highlights the medium term (2023-32) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers of these projections.