2020, this evocative year of hindsight and foresight, has humbled us with a global shock: the COVID-19 pandemic. We have been reminded that, despite the best laid plans, the truth is that the future likes to surprise us. To prepare our education systems for what may come, we have to consider not only the changes that appear most probable, but also the ones that we are not expecting.

There are always multiple versions of the future – some are assumptions, others hopes and fears. To prepare, we have to consider not only the changes that appear most probable, but also the ones that we are not expecting. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic has reminded us of how comfortable assumptions about the future may change in an instant.

Our world is in a perpetual state of change. There are always multiple versions of the future – some are assumptions, others hopes and fears. To prepare, we have to consider not only the changes that appear most probable, but also the ones that we are not expecting. Inspired by the ground‑breaking 2001 Schooling for Tomorrow scenarios, this report provides four scenarios for the future of education to 2040, showing not a single path into the future, but many. Using these scenarios can help identify the opportunities and challenges that could be in store for education. We can then use those ideas to help us better prepare and act now.

Attempting to predict or forecast the future is of limited benefit in a world of high uncertainty. What is highly valuable, however, is to identify a number of different plausible future scenarios, explore what impacts they could have and identify potential implications for policies. Scenarios are sets of alternative futures in the form of snapshots or stories giving an image of a future context. They are intentionally fictional, and never contain predictions or recommendations. Scenarios do not consider what will happen, or what should happen; only what might happen. Participation and dialogue are indispensable to the effective use of scenarios. Through purposing, exploring, identifying implications, and taking strategic action, scenarios help us learn from the future to reframe and reperceive our understanding of the present.

Understanding the present helps us think about what the future holds. This chapter looks at how education’s goals and functions, structures and organisation, and processes and practices have unfolded over the last two decades. It addresses the continuing expansion of formal education in people’s first stages of life, from early education and care through to tertiary education. It explores the evolving notions of human learning and how learning objectives for individuals have changed. It also looks at the ways in which education policy and practice works to prepare teachers, schools and systems to effectively respond to such changes.

This chapter provides a set of four scenarios for the Future of Schooling. Consolidating the original 2001 OECD Schooling for Tomorrow scenarios from six to four, the scenarios consider four alternative futures for 2040:- Schooling extended: an intensification of the current front-end, massive schooling model - Education outsourced: an outsourcing of schooling and resulting surge of learning markets- Schools as learning hubs: a re-purposing of schooling and transformation of schools- Learn-as-you-go: the end of school-based learning and demise of schooling.

Imagining a future where massive schooling systems have radically transformed or, instead, have completely disappeared can be difficult. Our schools are deeply rooted in our societies and in our current ways of living, seeing and thinking. This closing chapter explores key elements and potential outcomes and implications of the four OECD Scenarios for the Futures of Schooling. It identifies seven tensions and paradoxes that must be considered when using the scenarios. Its aim is to highlight key challenges where further discussion can be most valuable.