This year’s OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook comes at a critical juncture. The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on the agricultural sector, requiring swift action to ensure the sector can remain resilient, efficient and sustainable, now and over the longer term. The 2021 UN Food Systems Summit in New York will be an excellent opportunity for the international community to chart a future vision for the agri-food systems, including to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With less than ten years until the 2030 target for achieving the SDGs, policy-makers need to reflect on the factors and forces driving performance in the agri-food systems. It is against this background that the 2021 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook identifies and analyses the drivers of performance in the agri-food markets over 2021-2030.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward looking policy analysis and planning. The report is a collaborative effort of the OECD and FAO, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies. Since this year’s Outlook period ends in 2030, the report’s projections also suggest areas where more attention is needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Following a description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections, this chapter presents the main findings of the Agricultural Outlook. It highlights key projections for consumption, production, trade, and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2021 to 2030. Agricultural demand growth is expected to slow down over the coming decade and to be mainly driven by population growth. Varying income levels and income growth projections, as well as cultural preferences around diets and nutrition, will underlie continuing differences in consumption patterns between countries. The slower demand growth for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in crop and livestock production, which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries, and for rural livelihoods in food-exporting countries. Over the coming decade, weather variability, animal and plant diseases, changing input prices, macro-economic developments and other uncertainties will result in variations around the projections

This chapter describes key trends and emerging issues facing the agricultural sector in the six FAO regions, i.e. Asia and Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia, North America, and Latin America and the Caribbean. It highlights the regional aspects of production, consumption, and trade projections for the period 2021-30 and provides background information on key regional issues.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for maize, rice, wheat and other coarse grains are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world cereal markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world oilseed markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for soybean, other oilseeds, protein meal, and vegetable oil are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world oilseed markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world sugar markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for sugar beet, sugar cane, sugar, molasses, and high-fructose corn syrup are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world sugar markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world meat markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for beef and veal, pigmeat, poultry, and sheepmeat are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world meat markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world dairy markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for milk, fresh dairy products, butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world dairy markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world fish markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for fish from catch and aquaculture are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world fish markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world biofuel markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for ethanol and biodiesel are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world biofuel markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world cotton markets for the period 2021-30. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for cotton are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world cotton markets over the next ten marketing years.

This chapter provides a market overview and a description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (i.e. field peas, broad beans, chickpeas, lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (i.e. mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It then highlights the medium term (2021-30) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers of these projections.