The transport sector has moved through one global crisis and into another since the publication of the previous edition of the ITF Transport Outlook. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine has brought untold destruction and human suffering. The conflict has also precipitated an energy crisis and widespread supply-chain disruptions.

Every two years, the International Transport Forum (ITF) publishes the ITF Transport Outlook, which provides an overview of current trends and near-term prospects for the global transport sector based on its in-house transport models.

The following table defines key terms used in the ITF Transport Outlook 2023 including transport modes, transport policy measures and exogenous factors considered in each of the policy scenarios, scenario definitions and more.

This edition of the ITF Transport Outlook examines the impacts of different policy measures on global transport demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050. The analysis covers passenger and freight activity across all transport modes. It places a particular focus on transport policies that make cities more liveable. A second focus is on infrastructure investment decisions and what different policy scenarios mean for them. As a third focus, the report explores regional differences in policy impacts.

This chapter summarises the main impacts of the Covid‑19 pandemic on the transport sector and describes the major uncertainties currently affecting recovery from the pandemic. The chapter also covers the main drivers of transport demand and the externalities that complicate efforts to decarbonise transport. Next, it outlines the scale of the decarbonisation challenge for the transport sector and provides an update on international co-operation to achieve decarbonisation goals. Finally, it outlines the priorities national transport ministries need to consider when meeting their commitments to the aims of the Paris Agreement.

This chapter introduces the policy assumptions for the two modelling scenarios in the ITF Transport Outlook 2023. The Current Ambition scenario takes into account existing policies and forthcoming policy commitments, while the High Ambition scenario imagines a policy pathway with accelerated implementation timelines, or increased scale. The chapter then gives an overview of the projections for passenger and freight transport demand, and their associated carbon emissions, under the Current Ambition and High Ambition scenarios.

This chapter analyses the drivers of transport demand. It explores the role policy levers aimed at managing demand (“Avoid” measures) and encouraging the shift to sustainable modes (“Shift” measures) could play in a low-carbon transport future. Specific sections analyse measures targeted at urban transport, regional travel, international and intercity travel, and non-urban freight movements.

New propulsion technologies for vehicles and low-carbon alternative fuels make the greatest difference in reducing transport emissions between the Current and High Ambition scenarios. This chapter describes policy commitments and actions (“Improve” measures) that can lay the groundwork for the transition to zero-emission vehicles and fuels. Specific sections analyse the transition to clean road vehicles, the challenge of decarbonising aviation and maritime transport and the importance of accounting for regional differences.

The global urban population is expected to continue growing rapidly. Enhancing the quality of life in urban areas will present an especially important challenge in the coming decades. This chapter describes how transport policy and investment can produce liveability benefits beyond reductions in carbon emissions and traffic congestion. The analysis quantifies the benefits of the High Ambition scenario relative to the Current Ambition scenario and isolates the effect of specific transport policies, such as carbon taxes and demand management, across several urban performance indicators.

This chapter presents estimates of the transport infrastructure investment needs for the Current Ambition and High Ambition scenarios. It outlines the differences in investment profiles between transport modes based on projected transport demand. It also explores the potential investment needs associated with installing electric vehicle charging networks to support the policies of the High Ambition scenario. Finally, it considers the corresponding impact of electrification on fuel tax revenues.

Additional statistical resources are available via OECD.Stat.