The OECD Development Co-operation Directorate (DCD) has produced Fragile States publications since 2005. These explore trends and financial resource flows in fragile and conflict-affected countries and economies (referred to hereafter as contexts). Balancing a global perspective on fragility with a focus on the most fragile contexts, the reports respond to growing concerns about the implications of fragility for stability and development, especially in the context of the 2030 Agenda and the international promise to leave no one behind. The OECD is one of only a handful of sources of aggregate data and analysis for fragile contexts as a group.

In States of Fragility 2020, the OECD cautioned that fragile contexts were at a critical juncture if they were to deliver the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Decisive action was needed to manage the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the people, communities and states that were furthest behind. That moment has passed. The world has fallen short on the promise of an equitable and inclusive recovery. By the end of June 2022, only one in three people in fragile contexts had received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, compared to three in four people in OECD countries. The pandemic has disproportionately affected women and girls’ health, education and well-being – particularly so in fragile contexts. This is also true for the protection of rights of refugees and those seeking asylum. The impact of climate change, biodiversity loss and the consequences of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine are contributing to a further deterioration of the global fragility landscape. We are in an era defined by multiple crises, shocks and uncertainty. Development co-operation needs to adapt because the scale and complexity of fragility are overtaking response. Fresh thinking and new approaches are urgently required.

States of Fragility 2022 arrives as the world is grappling with a series of crises – chief among them COVID-19, climate change and Russia’s unprovoked, illegal and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine – that threaten collective prospects for prosperity and peace. Such prospects are especially dire in the 60 fragile contexts on this year’s edition of the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework. In 2022, these contexts account for a quarter (23%) of the world’s population but three-quarters (73%) of people living in extreme poverty worldwide. By 2030, the latter share is projected to increase to 86% of the world’s extreme poor, even before fully accounting for the unfolding impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on livelihoods and stability in fragile contexts.

This chapter presents the main findings from the 2022 edition of the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework, including the state of global fragility today and the key characteristics of the 60 fragile contexts in terms of their income levels, geography, political natures and conflict status. It concludes with an analysis of illustrative trends in fragile contexts related to violence, inequality, food insecurity and forced displacement. These trends demonstrate the severity and scale of the fragility that is overwhelming the progress made on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in fragile contexts, in addition to posing new questions about the future of development co-operation in an age of crises.

This chapter analyses the current state of responses to crises and fragility. In line with the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, it reviews the economic and financing landscape in fragile contexts and identifies risks and coping capacities beyond official development assistance financing. It then looks at approaches to policy and programming on three key issues that will impact policy and practice in fragile contexts for the foreseeable future: the economic channels transmitting shocks and reinforcing resilience, growing climate change and environmental fragility risks, and the under-developed links between development and peace.

The findings in the previous two chapters illustrate the severity of today's challenges alongside the scale of current responses to addressing the root causes of multidimensional fragility. This final chapter presents several ambitions to support partners in their efforts to chart a path through crises in fragile contexts. These ambitions – embracing a multidimensional approach, promoting collective action, and bridging the divide between development and peace – offer a way forward for the OECD Development Assistance Committee and its partners to navigate fragility in this age of crises.

This annex provides an overview of the methodological notes for the data and evidence used in this report. Further information on the methodology for the States of Fragilityreport series is available on the States of Fragility data and visualisation platform: http://www3.compareyourcountry.org/states-of-fragility/about/0/. This webpage also contains a link to the underlying data and statistical code (produced in R and R Studio) for the production of the fragility framework. Andrew Etchell and David Hammond (Institute for Economics and Peace) peer-reviewed and validated the statistical code to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the findings. Further information on the details of this peer review is available upon request.