The OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 is the eleventh in a biennial series designed to review key trends in science, technology and innovation (STI) in OECD countries and a number of major non-member economies: Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Peru, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Thailand. It aims at informing policy makers, business representatives and analysts about recent and anticipated changes in the global patterns of science, technology and innovation and about the current and possible future implications for national STI policies both at global and national level.

Tomorrow’s world is set to be of another kind. Powerful forces, rising from deep socio-economic, environmental, technological and political trends – so-called “megatrends” – are influencing developments in economies and societies, shaping our future, often in unexpected ways. These multidimensional, mutually reinforcing and sometimes opposing megatrends will affect the direction and pace of technological change and scientific discovery and influence future STI activities and policies.

This chapter describes and analyses the main global “megatrends” that are set to have a strong impact on societies and economies, including science, technology and innovation (STI) systems, over the next 10-15 years. Megatrends are large-scale social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes that are slow to form but which, once they have taken root, exercise a profound and lasting influence on many if not most human activities, processes and perceptions. Such relative stability in the trajectory of major forces of change allows some elements of a likely medium-to-long term future to be envisioned, at least with some degree of confidence. The megatrends covered in this chapter are clustered into eight thematic areas as follows: demography; natural resources and energy; climate change and environment; globalisation; the role of government; economy, jobs and productivity; society; and health, inequality and well-being.

Technological change is set to have profound impacts over the next 10-15 years, widely disrupting economies and societies. As the world faces multiple challenges, including ageing, climate change, and natural resource depletion, technology will be called upon to contribute new or better solutions to emerging problems. These socio-ecological demands will shape the future dynamics of technological change, as will developments in science and technology. This chapter discusses ten key or emerging technologies that are among the most promising and potentially most disruptive and that carry significant risks. The choice of technologies is based on the findings of a few major foresight exercises carried out in recent years. The ten technologies are as follows: the Internet of Things; big data analytics; artificial intelligence; neurotechnologies; nano/microsatellites; nanomaterials; additive manufacturing; advanced energy storage technologies; synthetic biology; and blockchain. The chapter describes each technology in turn, highlighting some of its possible socioeconomic impacts and exploring related policy issues. A final section highlights some common themes across the ten technologies.

This chapter focuses on public research systems and the potential shifts that they are likely to experience over the next 10-15 years. While public research systems have their own specific trend dynamics – for example, with regard to research funding, where and how research is performed and reported, and researcher career paths – they are also affected by wider changes in economies and societies. This chapter explores what these changes might mean for public sector research, raising eight main questions about its future: What resources will be dedicated to public research? Who will fund public research? What public research will be performed and for what purpose? Who will perform public research? How will public research be performed? What will public research careers look like? What outputs and impacts will be expected of public research? And what will public research policy and governance look like?

Many governments, across the OECD and beyond, are facing unprecedented economic and societal challenges and consider science and innovation as part of the response. New data from an EC/OECD survey on science and innovation policies shows that governments have particularly focused policy attention and action in recent years on addressing more immediate economic imperatives and building more effective, impactful and responsible policies. Against a background of slow economic growth and tight budgetary conditions, many governments have shifted attention and support away from public research towards business innovation and entrepreneurship, with a view to promoting firms’ potential to drive a stronger and more sustainable recovery. Efforts have also been made to reinforce national policy evaluation capacity so as to gain efficiency and to better orient science, technology and innovation (STI) policies towards societal goals. This chapter presents recent trends in national science and innovation policies across OECD member countries and major emerging economies, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and South Africa. It considers the economic and financial conditions that determine innovation behaviour and that currently shape the innovation policy agenda. It presents the “hot” STI policy issues in countries as well as the most recent shifts in national policy mixes. This chapter builds on countries’ responses to the latest European Commission (EC)/OECD International Survey on Science, Technology and Innovation Policies (STIP) and recent OECD work on science and innovation policies.