The ITF Transport Outlook 2019 presents scenarios for the future of transport for all sectors and modes until 2050. How will demand for transport develop over the next three decades? How will this affect transport CO2 emissions? How could various disruptive developments affect transport? To what extent will transport’s future resemble its past, and to what degree will it become something altogether different?

The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term projections for transport demand to 2050. The analysis covers freight (maritime, air, surface) and passenger transport (car, rail and air) as well as related CO2 emissions, under different policy scenarios.

This chapter examines past trends in transport demand and offers projections of future transport activity to 2050. It first reviews the key drivers for recent trends in transport demand and for expected developments. Demand projections for passenger transport are broken down for urban, domestic and international transport by mode. Freight projections are presented for maritime, surface, and air freight transport.

This chapter provides projections of future transport CO2 emission based on a current ambition scenario and a high ambition scenario. The high ambition scenario reflects the extent to which known transport decarbonisation measures could mitigate the sector’s CO2 emissions. The simulations show that emissions reductions will fall short of climate objectives set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015 even in the high ambition scenario. Achieving these objectives will hinge on scaling up known strategies as well as bringing to bear innovative measures that will enable transport demand to be satisfied with minimal CO2 emissions.

This chapter reviews the current landscape of urban passenger transport, including a number of technological and business developments that disrupt the sector in the future. It develops two main disruptive scenarios: one that portrays a future in which policy adjustments are made to manage the disruptive effects of these developments and one in which no such adjustments are made. The results indicate that disruptive developments may lead to modal shifts that increase congestion and emissions by 2050, and that targeted policies will be necessary in order to steer these developments in directions that minimise their negative externalities and maximise their co-benefits.

This chapter assesses the impact of potential disruptions on non-urban passenger travel. Three disruptions are considered: a further expansion of low-cost aviation into long-haul services, the introduction of ultra-high-speed rail services and the large-scale availability of alternative fuels for aviation. Beyond the two scenarios outlining future pathways for transport under policies reflecting either current ambitions or high ambitions, three additional scenarios are examined. These look at the combined impacts of the potential disruptions identified for non-urban passenger transport and provide projections for the development of non-urban travel demand and its CO2 emissions to 2050.

This chapter provides background on the transformation of freight transport and scopes the impacts of potential disruptions such as e-commerce, 3D printing, new international trade routes, autonomous trucks and high capacity vehicles. Also explored are scenarios that combine different disruptions, quantifying the impacts of more technology-oriented changes, logistic or exogenous transformation and all disruptions combined with high policy ambitions. The first section revisits the current ambition and high ambition scenarios for a more in-depth look at their freight-related features.