This chapter presents an evaluation of reference and counterfactual scenarios. The findings indicate that policy inaction can prevent urban transport from becoming carbon neutral any time soon. Under the reference scenario, in which no substantial policy change occurs, total emissions from road transport will continue increasing, while 60% of the per capita emissions in 2018 will be produced in 2050. Stringent policies that promote public transport and electric vehicles, as well as interventions that give rise to a more compact urban form may reduce the latter figure to 30%. The analysis highlights the policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions and increase welfare, while also identifying the order at which these policies should be implemented.

This chapter explores the degree to which the key policy recommendations of the study are relevant to contexts beyond Auckland and New Zealand. To that end, it revisits the projected reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and other key outcomes under different assumptions about the carbon intensity of the electricity generation sector, population growth and income evolution. Moreover, the chapter offers an extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to various model parameters including the evolution of preferences for open space, fuel efficiency, electricity and fuel prices, as well as of the pace at which advantages of conventional vehicles vis-à-vis electric cars fade out. That analysis identifies the factors that have an important impact on the key conclusions. Finally, the chapter enumerates a series of methodological limitations of the analysis and the impact they have on the key conclusions of the study.