GDP is expected to contract by 3.3% in 2024, before growing by 2.7% in 2025. High inflation, a sizeable but necessary fiscal adjustment, and policy uncertainty will weigh on private consumption and investment for most of 2024. The gradual lifting of import restrictions and currency controls will eventually boost the recovery of domestic demand, particularly in 2025. Pent-up demand resulting from these restrictions will keep imports strong while exports will continue their robust recovery. Inflation is decelerating visibly, even if only gradually so far, but it is eventually projected to decline more sharply.

Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2024 before recovering to 2.2% in 2025. The impact of higher interest rates will continue to damp spending by households and businesses over the coming year. The unemployment rate is projected to rise further, reaching 4.3% in 2025. Price pressures will continue to ease, although inflation of some services components is anticipated to remain elevated throughout 2024. A downside risk to economic growth is that taming stubborn services inflation may require tighter monetary policy than currently assumed.

Growth will gradually pick up to 0.2% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, following a contraction of 0.7% in 2023. While private consumption will gather strength with rising real wages, investment will remain weak because of high borrowing costs and rising labour costs. Unemployment is set to rise somewhat in 2024. Inflation will decrease steadily but remain above 2%. Further easing of the labour market is possible given extensive labour hoarding, and weak external demand or high cost pass-through could diminish exports.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. Subdued global trade in 2024 and high interest rates are expected to weigh on investment and net exports. The effect of the automatic indexation of incomes on household consumption will begin to dissipate and employment growth will slow. Investment should recover in 2025 as external demand strengthens and inflation and financing conditions ease, spurring domestic activity. Headline inflation is projected to rise to 3.6% in 2024, before dropping to 1.9% in 2025 as economic slack reduces underlying pressures.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Buoyed by robust employment growth, minimum wage increases and diminishing inflation, household spending is expected to be the main engine of growth, particularly in 2024. Despite recent signs of a rebound, continued external uncertainty will keep private investment subdued throughout 2024. Inflation, which declined continuously throughout 2023, is projected to continue to converge towards the target during 2024 and 2025.

Growth is expected to strengthen to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, as government investment picks up, along with the rollout of EU funds. Private consumption growth will moderate, but it will remain strong, supported by high wage and credit growth. Improving external conditions and easing constraints on production are expected to lift trade volumes. While headline inflation has been slowing, high wage growth is an obstacle to faster disinflation. Continued political uncertainty places planned reforms and investments at risk.

Real GDP growth will pick up from 1% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting strengthening global conditions, the boost to private spending and labour supply from immigration, and monetary policy easing. Growth will nevertheless remain below trend, and price pressures will ease. Price inflation has already declined to the upper boundary of the target band. Developments in the housing market and related debt still require close monitoring.

Output is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. A recovery in real wages helped by falling inflation and looser financial conditions will support a recovery in consumption over 2024-25. Business confidence has improved, but stagnant credit will continue to restrain investment growth during 2024. Global demand for minerals will underpin export growth in 2024-2025. Inflation will converge to the 3% target in mid‑2025.

Economic growth will ease to 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. Adjustment in the real estate sector continues with housing starts still falling. However, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are growing at a moderate, but steady, pace. Consumption growth will be stable but damped by high precautionary savings after the pandemic. Debt resolution of local government investment vehicles will gather momentum. Exports will pick up again as global demand recovers, and an increasing number of Chinese goods become competitive in international markets. Consumer price inflation will remain very low and producer prices will continue to fall.

The economy is expected to undergo another year of modest growth, projected at 1.2% in 2024, before picking up to 3.3% in 2025. Total investment is expected to recover partially as financial conditions ease, but uncertainty will continue to put a drag on private investment. Inflation is slowing gradually but remains high and will only fall within the target range in the latter half of 2025.

GDP will grow by 3.6% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025. Monetary policy easing, credit supply expansion and increases in households’ income will support domestic demand. Export growth is expected to moderate in 2024 and edge up in 2025 as global conditions improve. Headline inflation is expected to rise to 0.4% (year-on-year) in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.

GDP will grow by 3.3% in 2024 as higher wages, increased employment and ongoing disinflation boost households’ real incomes and raise domestic demand. In 2025, growth will remain robust, at 2.8%, supported by spending of EU funds and the ongoing benefits of Croatia’s integration in the euro and Schengen areas.

GDP is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. Lower inflation will boost real incomes and consumption growth. The recovery of global demand will support export growth. Investment will be bolstered by easing financial conditions and faster absorption of EU recovery and resilience funds. Risks to the projections are related to geopolitical tensions and their effects on energy prices, as well as supply chain disruptions, which would lead to higher inflation and lower growth.

Economic growth is projected to remain robust at 2.3% in 2024 before slowing to 1.5% in 2025. Improving global trade will sustain non-pharmaceutical exports, while growth in the key pharmaceutical sector is set to moderate. Wage rises and ongoing disinflation will increase household purchasing power. Business investment will recover gradually as credit conditions improve and interest rates decrease. The main risks to the outlook relate to performance in the main exporting sectors and stronger than expected effects from rising labour costs on inflation and price competitiveness.

Following a significant downturn, with a further GDP decline of 0.4% this year, growth will pick up to 2.6% in 2025, reflecting a strengthening of trade, higher public investment and lower interest rates. Inflation will continue to moderate, reaching 3.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Significant risks stem from developments in export markets, in particular in the Nordic countries, and geopolitical tensions, as well as from stronger than anticipated wage growth that could keep core inflation elevated.

GDP growth is projected to remain weak, at 0.7% in 2024, and pick up to 1.5% in 2025 as domestic demand recovers. Private consumption will be supported by wage increases in tight labour markets and increasing real incomes as inflation recedes. Investment will benefit from a gradual easing of credit conditions and ongoing disbursement of the Recovery and Resilience Facility funds. Wage growth is projected to ease over the projection period, as employment bottlenecks in services moderate, helping core inflation to reach 2% by mid-2025.

The Finnish economy contracted by 1% in 2023, with weakness carrying over into a further year‑average 0.4% decline in 2024. However, a slow recovery is under way, and growth is projected to reach 1.9% in 2025. Elevated interest rates will continue to weigh on private consumption and residential investment in the short term. Inflation is falling quickly, due to lower commodity prices and weak demand, and will drop further in 2024. This will support real income growth and private consumption. Exports are set to pick up gradually with a recovery in external demand. Unemployment will rise in 2024, reflecting weak labour demand, especially in construction, but edge down in 2025.

GDP growth is expected to soften to 0.7% in 2024, before rebounding to 1.3% in 2025. Tighter financing conditions will continue to weigh on domestic demand in 2024, while the boost from two major public support programmes will taper off. However, disinflation will bolster household purchasing power and consumption. A moderate improvement in external demand will allow export growth to strengthen gradually. Following the recent slowdown in activity, employment growth will ease and unemployment will rise. Headline inflation is expected to recede to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025.

The economy is projected to grow by 0.2% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Continued disinflation and rising wages will support real incomes and private consumption. Private investment will gradually pick up, helped by the relocation of supply chains, digitalisation and renewable energy expansion. It will be supported by high corporate savings and slowly declining interest rates. However, policy uncertainty related to the financing of planned fiscal incentives for green investments will continue to weigh on investor confidence. Exports will slowly recover as global demand strengthens.

Growth will remain at 2.0% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025. Rising employment and real wages will strengthen consumption. The disbursement of EU Recovery and Resilience funds will support investment despite tight financial conditions. Inflation will continue to fall, but at a slower pace, returning close to target by the end of 2025.

GDP is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, after a decline of 0.9% in 2023. Lower inflation and interest rates are expected to support private consumption and investment. In addition to risks related to international trade and global commodity prices, the main uncertainties for the Hungarian economy concern the pace of fiscal consolidation and the outcome of the negotiations about the delivery of EU funds.

Economic growth will decline to 1.9% in 2024 as exports slow but rebound to 2.8% in 2025. Private consumption will remain lacklustre in the near term, reflecting subdued real wages, but will pick up in 2025 as disposable income strengthens. Business investment will remain weak in 2024 as confidence is fragile but will regain momentum in 2025 as financial conditions ease. Housing investment will resume after three years of contraction. Foreign tourism will hardly grow due to capacity constraints. The unemployment rate will edge up to near 4%.

GDP growth is projected at 7.8% in FY 2023-24 and around 6½ per cent in each of the following two fiscal years. Domestic demand will be driven by gross capital formation, particularly in the public sector, with private consumption growth remaining sluggish. Exports will continue to grow, especially of services such as information technology and consulting where India will continue to increase its global market share, supported by foreign investment. Headline inflation will decline gradually, although uncertainty about food inflation remains elevated.

GDP growth is projected to be 5.1% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2025. Domestic demand remains driven by private consumption and gross capital formation growth will strengthen in 2024 and 2025. Headline inflation is expected to fall slightly below 3% in 2024 and remain unchanged in 2025, within the central bank’s revised target corridor (1.5-3.5%). Heightened global uncertainty and lower commodity prices have reduced nominal merchandise exports. Although the current account deficit is growing, international reserves are expected to be broadly stable.

After having surged by 9.6% in 2022, real GDP shrunk by 3.3% in 2023, driven by rebalancing in pharmaceuticals and other export-oriented multinational-dominated sectors. As inflationary pressures and financial conditions ease, GDP will rise by 0.9% this year and 2.9% in 2025. Modified domestic demand, controlling for the major statistical distortions arising from the activities of multinationals, expanded by 0.6% in 2023, as weak domestic investment largely offset solid consumer spending, and is projected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, helped by a resilient labour market.

The terrorist attacks and the subsequent war have hit Israel’s economy, which is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2024 before picking up by 4.6% in 2025. Private consumption rebounded quickly and is set to remain an engine of growth, together with government consumption related to the war. Investment and especially construction, which declined sharply late in 2023, are projected to recover only in part, remaining below their October 2023 levels, as influxes of foreign workers do not fully compensate the suspension of Palestinians’ work permits. Inflation is projected to remain at 2½ per cent in 2024-2025, as the impact of the 2025 VAT increase offsets ongoing disinflation.

GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. High inflation over the past two years has eroded real incomes, financial conditions remain tight, and most of the exceptional fiscal support related to the COVID-19 and energy crises has been withdrawn, weighing on private consumption and investment. The projected pick-up in real wage growth and the increase in public investment related to New Generation EU (NGEU) funds will only partly offset these headwinds. Risks are broadly balanced. The main downside risk is that the scaling back of the so-called “Superbonus” building tax credit triggers a larger‑than‑expected contraction in housing investment. On the upside, a significant pick-up in public investment related to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) could boost growth.

Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 0.5% in 2024 before strengthening to 1.1% in 2025, as domestic demand rebounds. Private consumption will be supported by wage growth and fiscal measures. Government subsidies for green and digital investment and high corporate profits will boost business investment, despite potential supply constraints. Headline inflation is projected to moderate as imported energy and food prices stabilise, before rising as wage growth gains momentum.

GDP growth is projected to strengthen from 1.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Elevated debt servicing burdens and still‑above‑target inflation will continue to weigh on private consumption and investment in the short term, but domestic demand should recover in 2024. Exports will keep improving with robust semiconductor demand. Inflation will reach the target by the end of 2024, despite current food price pressures and rising energy prices. Employment is set to continue expanding, while unemployment will stabilise at a low level.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Rapidly falling headline inflation and rising nominal wages will boost real incomes and consumption. Public investment will accelerate due to the absorption of EU funds, while lower interest rates will support business and residential investment. Exports will pick up as key export markets recover. Core inflation will remain high due to strong wage growth related to labour shortages and rising minimum and public sector wages. Rising geopolitical risks could adversely affect risk premiums and derail growth.

After a mild contraction in 2023, growth is projected to rebound to 1.7% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. Investment will be a key driver of growth, supported by the roll-out of EU funds. Consumption will be buoyed by strong real wage growth amid falling inflation, while unemployment is projected to decline slowly. Exports will recover gradually from a sharp slowdown as external demand from trading partners gathers pace.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. The main driver of growth will be private consumption, as rising nominal wages and receding inflation support households’ real disposable income. Exports are expected to strengthen on the back of growing demand from euro area trading partners, whereas investment is projected to remain weak in 2024, mainly due to the downturn in construction. Risks are moderately to the downside. A larger-than-expected and more persistent downturn in the housing market could lead to a weaker recovery in activity, while an earlier-than-expected easing of global financial conditions could boost activity, especially in the financial sector.

GDP is projected to grow by 3.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. After a weak patch in late 2023, private consumption is expected to be robust due to continued improvements in the labour market, lower inflation, and government cash transfers. Investment is projected to continue to grow steadily, supported by multi‑year infrastructure projects. International tourist arrivals have returned to the pre-pandemic level, which will continue to sustain exports. However, weaker external demand for goods, could reduce export prospects.

The economy is projected to expand by 2.2% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Consumption will be supported by a strong labour market. Investment will be backed by public infrastructure projects in 2024 and by the gradual nearshoring of manufacturing activities to Mexico. Exports will support growth in 2025, after losing some dynamism in 2024 due to the slowdown in United States. Inflation will continue to gradually edge down to 3.1% in 2025.

Growth is projected to improve from 0.7% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, supported by private consumption as purchasing power increases. Annual headline inflation is set to fall from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025. Core inflation will slow to 2.3% in 2025, as some upside pressures from a tight labour market persist. Wages will rise by 5.2% in 2024 before slowing to 3.8% in 2025. Unemployment is expected to increase marginally from 3.7% in 2024 to 4% by the end of 2025.

Economic rebalancing is set to continue. GDP growth is projected at 0.8% in 2024 before picking up to 1.9% in 2025 as disinflation helps to restore modest real household income and consumption growth. Rising house prices and rents should eventually stimulate housing construction, while higher growth in demand from trading partners, and further recovery in tourist arrivals will boost exports. Labour demand is softening. In line with weaker growth and ebbing labour market tensions, headline consumer price inflation is projected to fall to 3.2% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.

Mainland GDP is projected to increase by 0.5% in 2024, with an acceleration to 1.6% in 2025 as domestic demand strengthens. High inflation and monetary policy tightening have dampened activity, with stagnation in most non-oil sectors and a sharp decline in construction, whereas oil and gas extraction has remained buoyant. Inflation is set to decline only slowly, held up by exchange rate depreciation and cost pressures, given the still tight labour market and weak productivity growth.

GDP will pick up to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, supported by more favourable financial conditions and reduced inflation that will bolster domestic demand. Central government efforts to expand infrastructure, coupled with a faster execution of public investment projects by subnational governments, will support investment. A gradual employment recovery will stimulate private consumption. Exports are expected to be sustained by a rebound in tourism, fishing, and agricultural production as the impact of El Niño dissipates. Inflation will slow further, converging gradually to the midpoint of the target range of 2% by the end of 2024.

Real GDP growth is expected to recover to 2.9% this year with rising real wages and fiscal policy supporting consumption growth, despite weaker investment growth. Headline inflation has been falling, but will rise to 4.8% by the end of 2024 due to a withdrawal of food and energy support measures before declining to 3.5% in 2025. In 2025, real GDP will grow by 3.4% as EU funds lead to a pickup in investment and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) remains strong, although consumption growth will still be tempered by inflation and a further withdrawal of fiscal support. Slower than anticipated fiscal consolidation and higher investment could pose upside risks to inflation, while an escalation of the war in Ukraine could disrupt the economy.

Real GDP growth is projected to ease to 1.6% in 2024 and rebound to 2.0% in 2025. A tight labour market and falling inflation are supporting real wage growth and private consumption, and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) will boost investment. Modest global growth and high uncertainty are holding back exports and investment, but this will fade as external demand strengthens. With stable energy prices and slowing labour demand, inflation will continue to moderate to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, below potential. Slow job creation will keep the unemployment rate above pre-COVID levels. Higher real incomes will boost private consumption. Export volumes are expected to recover on improving conditions in Europe. Ongoing infrastructure projects will support activity but growth contributions from investment should moderate. With demand increasing more gradually than the economy’s supply capacity, inflation is expected to return to the target band by the end of 2025. Persistent labour cost pressure could, however, cause inflation to remain higher for longer.

GDP growth is projected to pick up to 2.1% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Falling inflation will lead to higher real wage and consumption growth. The easing of financial conditions, higher absorption of EU Recovery and Resilience funds and the expected recovery in foreign demand will support investment and export growth. Risks are related to a resurgence of global energy prices and supply chain disruptions.

GDP growth is projected to pick up to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, with a recovery in domestic and external demand. Private consumption will be supported by a tight labour market and increasing real incomes as inflationary pressures slowly recede. Government spending on reconstruction following the devastating floods in 2023 as well as the inflow of EU funds will sustain investment growth.

Real GDP will increase by 1% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. Supply constraints will diminish through fewer power outages and rail freight and port bottlenecks. Lower lending rates will support a modest rise in investment. Declining energy and food prices will drive a further reduction in inflation. Increasing purchasing power, real wages and employment will support a gradual increase in consumption growth. Parliamentary elections scheduled for late May have heightened uncertainty.

GDP growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. Private consumption will underpin growth supported by a resilient labour market and real income gains, with inflation projected to fall to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Investment will remain weak in 2024, increasing in 2025 due to continuing implementation of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). Foreign trade will remain subdued. Downside risks include further escalation of geopolitical tensions that worsen demand from Spain’s main trading partners and a slow implementation of the RTRP.

After stalling in 2023, growth is projected to pick up to 0.6% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Inflation is expected to converge rapidly to target. Economic activity is set to remain subdued in the near term, but private consumption will gradually pick up throughout 2024 and 2025 buoyed by real income growth, lower debt servicing costs, and an improving labour market. A gradual easing of credit conditions, lower construction costs and higher external demand will support private investments.

Growth is projected to be 1.1% in 2024 and pick up to 1.4% in 2025. Weaker global trade and tight monetary conditions will weigh on private investment and exports. Inflation will increase temporarily towards the end of 2024, pushed by rent and electricity price increases, yet remain within the Swiss National Bank’s price stability range of 0‑2%. Further weakening of foreign demand, supply disruptions or a sharp house price correction are key downside risks to activity.

GDP is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Despite having lost some momentum in late 2023, private consumption, buoyed by fiscal measures, a strong labour market and declining inflation, is expected to remain robust, while investment will recover after a weak patch during 2023. A continued revival of international tourism is underpinning the steady recovery. However, weaker external demand for goods, particularly in key trading partners, could add to weakening competitiveness and reduce growth prospects.

Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 4.5% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Tighter financial conditions and the adverse impact of inflation on purchasing power will subdue household consumption. Investment activity is expected to remain strong partly due to the ongoing reconstruction following the 2023 earthquake. Exports will gradually strengthen reflecting an improved external environment. Inflation peaked at the beginning of this year but will remain elevated over 2024 and 2025.

GDP growth is projected to remain sluggish at 0.4% in 2024 before improving to 1.0% in 2025, reflecting the waning drag from past monetary tightening. Stronger real wage growth will support a modest pick‑up in private consumption. Headline inflation is expected to continue moderating towards target as energy and food prices have eased substantially, but persistent services price pressures will keep core inflation elevated at 3.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. Unemployment will continue increasing and reach 4.7% in 2025 as the labour market cools, although the actual degree of slack remains uncertain.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. Growth was strong in 2023 and is expected to continue at a fairly robust pace through 2024. The fiscal deficit will remain large but tighten modestly. Core PCE inflation declined during 2023 and continues to ease year-on-year, though at a modest pace. Monetary policy easing is expected to begin in the second half of 2024. Downside risks to the growth forecast include delays in the anticipated policy rate cuts and the imposition of additional trade restrictions. Upside risks include stronger‑than‑expected labour market growth, helping to boost household spending.

Real GDP growth is projected to strengthen to 6.0% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. Improving global demand and continued increases in tourist numbers will support export growth, although events in the Red Sea are raising logistics costs and may weigh on the recovery in exports. Substantial public investment plans and increasing real household incomes will support an increase in domestic demand. As activity accelerates, headline consumer price inflation will reach 3.9% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.

Growth slowed to 2.8% in FY 2023-24 but is expected to regain strength gradually, to 3.9% in FY 2024-25 and 5.6% in FY 2025-26. The shift to a flexible exchange rate regime has eased balance of payments tensions and improved confidence. Private consumption will gain momentum as inflation declines. A weaker exchange rate will boost exports but they will remain below potential due to adverse geopolitical conditions.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The main drivers will be the continued robust recovery in tourism, construction, and investment. Investment growth is expected to be supported by foreign direct investment and public investment, particularly in the housing sector. Inflation continued declining over 2023 and is expected to be within the Bank of Mauritius’ target range of 2 to 5 per cent by the end of 2024, before declining further to 4.2% in 2025.

Economic activity is set to strengthen further with real GDP projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024 and 4% in 2025. Although the agricultural sector remains impacted by drought, the strong performance of the services sector and exports will continue to support overall growth. Reconstruction activity following the 2023 earthquake, along with housing assistance programmes and incentives of the new investment charter, will help to strengthen investment. Lower inflation and the implementation of social programmes, including direct social assistance and health insurance for the vulnerable population, will stimulate household spending, although the phasing out of subsidies will damp this effect. Key risks include a prolongation of water stress, a slowdown in European demand and a new surge in shipping costs.

Ukraine’s economy proved resilient in 2023 and is estimated to have expanded by 5.3%. Growth is projected to moderate in 2024, due to infrastructure damage from Russia’s attacks and as the benefits of the reopening of sea export routes and of a good harvest fade. Inflation is likely to rise slightly due to the ongoing disruptions from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. In 2025 growth will rise to 4.5% assuming an improved security situation enables reconstruction to accelerate. The evolution of the war and the essential role of international support make these projections exceptionally uncertain.