The economy will recover gradually from the financial market turmoil in 2018. A strong currency depreciation has exacerbated high inflation, denting real incomes and investor confidence. Contractive macroeconomic policies and policy uncertainty in the run-up to the October 2019 elections will weigh on the recovery of domestic demand. However, exports will continue to lead the economy out of the recession, supported by the weaker real exchange rate and a strong harvest, although their strength will be severely limited by slow world trade growth. Unemployment is projected not to recede before 2020.

The economy is projected to continue to grow at a steady pace. New capacity in the resource sector will boost exports, although weaker growth in trading partners will slow export growth in 2019. Housing‑market cooling will damp construction activity. Business investment and government spending, on the other hand, will support growth. Wages and consumer prices will pick up only gradually.

Output growth is projected to slow to around 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020. Private consumption remains a key driver of growth, but the slowdown in the euro area is weighing on investment and trade. Inflation is set to remain close to target.

Economic growth is projected to slow to around 1¼ per cent in 2019 and 2020 as export growth weakens. Private consumption will be an important driver of growth, owing to employment gains and increased purchasing power of households. Government investment will be strong in 2020, and private investment will support growth over the projection period. Headline inflation will ease as past pressures, such as rising electricity prices, dissipate, but core inflation will edge up.

The recovery has recently slowed despite favourable financial conditions but growth is projected to pick up to 2¼ per cent in 2020. An ambitious pension reform proposal to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability has been submitted to Congress, but uncertainty about the implementation of the reform remains. If this uncertainty dissipates, domestic demand is projected to accelerate and unemployment to decline. Given ample spare capacity, inflation is expected to remain below target.

Growth is projected to recover to around 2% (annualised rate) in the second half of 2019. Exports will strengthen in response to an easing in Alberta’s mandatory oil production cuts and higher export market growth. Business investment will rise as firms move to increase capacity and productivity and in response to new tax incentives. Employment growth is on course to slow, but the unemployment rate should remain near record lows.

Economic growth will remain robust, at above 3%, in 2019-20. Supportive financing conditions, high copper prices, the planned tax and labour reforms and positive business sentiment will underpin investment. Low real interest rates and strong wage growth will support private consumption. Stronger growth will start to translate into higher employment growth. However, inequality is still high, driven by persistent low intergenerational mobility.

Growth is projected to decline gradually in 2019-20 as the economy continues to rebalance. Signs of the slowdown include the weakening of private investment, in particular real estate investment. Housing investment will remain subdued following a series of measures to restrict demand and a deterioration in consumer confidence. Accelerating infrastructure investment will partly make up for that. Consumption will grow steadily on the back of strong growth of disposable incomes. Foreign trade flows will continue to lose momentum as trade tensions have escalated. The current account surplus is projected to turn into a small deficit because of buoyant outbound tourism spending and lower exports due to higher tariffs faced by Chinese exporters.

Economic growth will strengthen to around 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, as lower corporate taxes boost investment. Low inflation and interest rates will support consumption. With demand-driven growth and weak export performance, the current account deficit will widen. Poverty has fallen, but inequality and informality remain high.

Economic activity is projected to pick up, supported by infrastructure investment and improved business sentiment upon the approval of fiscal reforms. Consumer spending will remain subdued on the back of tax increases, lower credit growth and a temporary increase in inflation, due to the introduction of a fully‑fledged VAT tax. However, an improvement in terms of trade will boost disposable income. External demand will remain robust, supported by tourism, high-tech products and business services.

Economic growth will remain robust in 2019 and 2020, although slowing to around 2½ per cent. Household consumption will grow fast thanks to growing wages and social benefits. Government spending and private investment will also contribute to growth. Labour shortages and weaker demand from trading partners will restrain growth in 2020.

Economic growth is projected to remain strong in 2019 and moderate in 2020 to around 1¾ per cent, as weaker external demand constrains export growth. Rising employment and solid real wage gains will support domestic demand and help sustain the expansion. Inflation is set to pick up from a very low rate as the economy operates above its capacity constraints.

Growth is projected to slow to 3.2% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020, as the global outlook softens and the domestic economy runs into capacity constraints. Strong growth of real wages and employment will support household consumption. Export growth will decelerate somewhat due to lower global demand and a loss of price competitiveness. Inflation will fall back as temporary factors wane.

Economic growth is expected to remain subdued, due to weak external demand and low business confidence, which weighs on private investment. Moderate support to economic activity will come from private consumption, underpinned by a robust labour market, with unemployment declining slightly further and wage growth firming up modestly. Core inflation will pick up only gradually from low levels. Monetary policy is set to remain very accommodative and a slightly expansionary fiscal stance is expected. The large external surplus will decline very slightly.

The economy is projected to expand at a slower pace of around 1½ per cent in 2019‑20, as export growth will weaken due to lower foreign demand growth, especially for investment goods. Residential investment will remain weak. Earnings and employment growth will support private consumption, even though gradually rising inflation is set to erode household real incomes. Employment growth will slow, as labour market mismatch binds.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.3% in 2019-20. Global economic conditions will weigh on exports, but tax cuts and the impact of the social emergency measures are holding up disposable income and consumption. Supportive financing conditions and higher business profit margins will moderate a deceleration of investment. Ongoing labour market reforms will also help job creation and promote inclusiveness. The unemployment rate will decline towards 8.5% at the end of 2020, while core inflation will strengthen only slightly.

GDP growth slowed considerably in 2018 - as world trade lost pace and important export markets decelerated sharply, adding to temporary supply disruptions in the car and chemicals sectors towards the end of the year. GDP is projected to grow at 0.7% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020. Mounting political uncertainties regarding trade disputes and Brexit are weighing on business confidence. Export growth and business investment are thus expected to slow. Yet, record low unemployment and strong wage growth should continue to buttress private consumption and the construction sector is booming.

The economic recovery is projected to maintain its recent pace, with GDP growing at or slightly above 2% in both 2019 and 2020. Domestic demand will contribute more to growth than in the recent past, offsetting moderating export growth. Investment is expected to start to recover as financing conditions improve. Stronger household incomes due to the recent minimum wage increase and rising employment will support household consumption.

The economic expansion is projected to slow, but GDP will still grow at 3.9% in 2019 and 3% in 2020. Private consumption will be underpinned by income gains from strong real wage and employment growth. Investment will be supported by the business sector’s need to expand capacity, government housing support and disbursements of EU structural funds. A tight labour market is pushing up inflation and increasingly tight capacity constraints are reducing GDP growth, with expanding demand being increasingly satisfied via higher imports.

The economy will slow significantly as exports, in particular tourism, decline because of the insolvency of a major domestic airline. Household consumption growth will ease on the back of moderate wage growth. Business investment will gradually recover from the current trough, but housing investment will ease further following a wave of new construction. Unemployment will edge up as the economy slows, and the current account surplus will narrow.

Economic growth will regain strength and approach 7½ per cent by 2020. The new income scheme for small farmers will support rural consumption. Investment growth will accelerate as capacity utilisation rises, interest rates decline, and geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty are assumed to wane. Lower oil prices and the recent appreciation of the rupee will reduce pressures on inflation and the current account.

GDP growth has held up well thanks to robust domestic demand, and is projected to remain above 5% in 2019 and 2020. Rising household incomes and low inflation will support household spending. Investment has slowed but will remain solid. The completion of large infrastructure projects in 2018 and 2019 should improve logistics considerably. Nonetheless, weaker trade growth, especially in Asia, will weigh on exports in 2019.

Economic growth is projected to remain robust, but to ease gradually to 3.9% in 2019 and 3.3% in 2020. Abstracting from the volatile activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs), underlying domestic demand growth will remain solid, supported by strong construction investment. Equipment investment growth will moderate somewhat amid ongoing uncertainty around the Irish economy, notably that related to the Brexit process. As the unemployment rate has fallen to historically low levels, job growth will moderate but wage pressures will remain strong, feeding into higher inflation.

The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the west Bank under the terms of international law.

GDP is projected to stagnate in 2019 and expand by 0.6% in 2020. Sluggish employment growth and a rising household saving rate are holding back private consumption, while weak external demand and global trade tensions are hurting exports. Lower business confidence and weak demand are depressing private investment, while project planning and execution delays continue to hinder public investment. Consumer price inflation has moderated markedly as energy price pressures have abated and private-sector wage growth remains modest.

Economic growth is projected to remain close to only 0.7% in 2019-20, with wage and investment growth sustained by labour and capacity shortages. The temporary effect of the October 2019 consumption tax increase will be mitigated by fiscal measures. Sustained growth is projected to gradually push up headline inflation to 1% (excluding the impact of the tax increase) by 2020.

Economic growth is projected to slow to around 2½ per cent in 2019-20, reflecting weakness in domestic demand and international trade. Restructuring in the manufacturing sector, notably in some industries facing weak overseas demand, and double-digit increases in the minimum wage are holding back job creation. Fiscal stimulus is projected to support growth, while core inflation will pick up to around 1½ per cent in 2020.

Economic growth is projected to decline as export market conditions worsen and the disbursement of EU funds slows. Robust household consumption will continue to support growth. High wage growth will gradually translate into rising inflation.

GDP growth is projected to slow gradually as investment eases towards more sustainable levels and the external sector remains weak. Labour supply constraints also limit growth. Tight labour market conditions and robust domestic demand will continue to put pressures on underlying inflation. Wage increases above productivity growth will sustain consumption and reduce income inequalities, but might negatively affect competitiveness.

Economic growth is projected to decline to 2% in 2019, but to recover to 2.5% in 2020. Domestic demand will support economic activity, notably private consumption, which will be held up by a resilient labour market and continuing effects of the tax reform. Slow growth in the euro area will weigh on exports of financial and non‑financial services. Continued job creation will primarily benefit cross-border workers, but also help to reduce the unemployment rate to just above 5%.

Economic activity will pick up modestly, supported by domestic demand. Consumption is set to strengthen on the back of robust remittances, lower inflation and higher social transfers. Announced infrastructure investment plans will also add to growth, but restraints on current spending will partly offset these effects. Policy uncertainty will continue to restrain private investment. The decline in oil activity will remain a drag on growth. Overall, growth will be too modest to allow for a reduction in high informality rates.

Economic growth is projected to slow considerably, to 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. A weakening external economic environment and increased international trade uncertainties are weighing on trade and investment growth. Deteriorating domestic conditions are contributing to projected labour market weakness, slow disposable income growth and tepid consumption.

Economic growth is projected to remain around 2½ per cent. Consumption is set to slow as net migration falls and the effect of increased financial support for families fades. Exports will pick up gradually, but less so than imports, as global growth eases. Business investment is expected to recover in the face of capacity constraints, while strong housing investment continues to meet shortages.

Mainland GDP growth will ease slightly as capacity constraints bind further. GDP growth will remain above trend and the narrowing of spare capacity will transmit into higher wage growth and continued reductions in unemployment.

Economic growth will decline to a still robust pace of 4.2% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, in part due to the wider slowdown in Europe. The decline in world trade growth will weigh on exports. However, an increase in social transfers and tax cuts will bolster private consumption. Accelerating wages will underpin a pick-up in inflation.

Economic growth is projected to remain stable, at 1.8-1.9% in 2019 and 2020. Private consumption will continue to rise in response to persistent employment growth and, more recently, wage increases. Business investment growth should remain robust, on the back of strong corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. Nonetheless, export growth will slow amid weakening economic activity in Portugal’s major trading partners.

Growth is projected to remain strong over the next two years, driven mainly by domestic demand. Low unemployment and rising wages will support household consumption. Investment growth will remain solid, underpinned by favorable financial conditions and by the disbursement of EU structural funds. External demand is weakening, but the launch of a new production line in the automotive sector will support gains in export market shares. Consumer price inflation will remain above 2% as the labour market tightens further.

Economic growth is projected to slow to around 3½ per cent this year and just over 3% in 2020. Private consumption will be supported by continued income gains from real wage and employment growth, while private investments will be underpinned by the business sector’s need to expand capacity and favourable financing conditions. The maturing of the recovery is reflected in increasing labour shortages and tightening capacity constraints, leading demand to be increasingly satisfied through higher imports.

Economic growth will remain sluggish throughout 2019 and 2020. Private consumption will expand on the back of moderate increases in real wages and disposable household income. Policy uncertainty around the land reform is assumed to fade with a clarification of the reform agenda following the general election, and investment is projected to pick up as confidence recovers. Exports will improve, benefitting from the recovery in international commodity prices. Inflation will pick up moderately due to rising food and electricity prices.

The economy is projected to grow at a robust, but more moderate, pace in 2019 and 2020. Favourable financial conditions and continued solid employment growth will support domestic demand, which will remain the main driver of growth. The contribution of the external sector is projected to remain broadly neutral in the projection period.

The economy remains robust, but growth is set to slow to 1.6% as the construction boom is over. Modest wage growth and lower house prices will continue to hold back private consumption, and global uncertainties will weigh on business investment. The unemployment rate is set to stop falling, as skill mismatches hamper hiring. Inflation is close to the 2% target.

After a strong 2018 outturn, GDP growth is projected to be more subdued in 2019 and 2020. Slower external demand growth will weigh on exports and investment. Household consumption will strengthen as job creation and real wage growth pick up. Inflation is projected to edge up, but will remain low.

After the severe financial shock in August 2018, which triggered a recession in the second half of the year, strong fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus have moderated the contraction in early 2019. However, investor uncertainty remains high after the recent municipal elections. Business and household sentiment are affected by increased uncertainty. Absent any new shocks to international and domestic confidence, a measured recovery is projected from the second half of 2019 onwards, although the level of GDP in 2019 and 2020 is projected to remain below the 2018 level. Substantial risks remain around the projected recovery of growth.

Economic activity is expected to grow slightly above 1% this year and next under the assumption that there is a smooth transition and exit from the European Union after 2020. Brexit-related uncertainties will keep holding back investment until there is clarity about future trading arrangements. Consumption will decelerate in line with slower employment gains. The economy should nonetheless benefit from a supportive fiscal stance this year and the modest recovery in global growth in 2020. Inflation should converge to 2% by the end of 2020.

Economic growth is slowing as fiscal policy becomes less supportive, and headwinds from a weaker global outlook, as well as trade and political uncertainties, weigh on activity. The labour market remains strong and, while job growth will slow, wages are picking up, which will underpin continued consumption growth. Uncertainty about trade policy and the consequences of past trade measures, coupled with the current weakness in global demand, are damping exports and investment.