The pace of change in Africa’s energy sector has quickened, imparting to the continent a growing sense of confidence despite many setbacks. Africa’s economy is also on an upward trajectory, with gross domestic product (GDP) likely to rise by around 4% this year. East Africa looks to be the fastest-expanding region today, led by Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. The way in which the energy sector develops will have a crucial influence on Africa’s future.

Africa has the world’s fastest growing population: one-in-two people added to the world population in the period to 2040 are African. With over 40% of the continent’s population under the age of 15, it also has the world’s youngest population. This young, expanding population is rapidly becoming more urban. The last two decades have seen the number of people living in cities increase by 90%, and this trend is set to accelerate over the next two decades. By 2040, an additional 580 million Africans are living in cities – a pace of urbanisation that is unprecedented.

Today, 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa (one-out-of-two people) do not have access to electricity, according to our latest country-by-country assessment. A number of countries make important headway in the Stated Policies Scenario, with South Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda and Senegal reaching full access by 2030. This allows around 20 million people to gain access every year. Yet progress is uneven: 530 million people (one-out-of-three people) remain without electricity in 2030. Annual gains in access would need to triple to reach universal access by 2030.

Africa is endowed with abundant oil, gas and mineral resources and these have provided an important source of income for the continent’s economic growth. But changing energy market dynamics offer different prospects for each fuel. Oil production reaches 8.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario, just shy of today’s level (after a dip in the 2020s); gas production doubles between 2018 and 2040; and coal production remains at today’s level.

How the African energy system evolves over the next two decades, and what it will look like in 2040, are vitally important questions not only for Africa but also the rest of the world. The future pathway is far from certain but, whatever the policy choices, the implications of those choices will resonate throughout Africa and beyond. We have outlined possible pathways for the continent’s energy development to 2040 as described in detail in Chapters 9, 10 and 11. These pathways are based on an in-depth, sector-by-sector and country-specific analysis of Africa’s energy sector opportunities: to the best of our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive such analysis undertaken to date.