In the Stated Policies Scenario, which explores the implications of announced targets as well as existing energy policies, primary energy demand grows by a quarter to 2040 (Figure 1.1). The projected annual average demand growth of 1% per year in this scenario is well below the 2.3% seen in 2018. A continuation of 2018 growth trends would raise overall demand even higher than in our Current Policies Scenario, which does not consider announced targets, and would put considerable strain on all aspects of the global energy system.

The Sustainable Development Scenario lays out a pathway to reach the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most closely related to energy: achieving universal energy access (SDG 7), reducing the impacts of air pollution (SDG 3.9) and tackling climate change (SDG 13). It is designed to assess what is needed to meet these goals, including the Paris Agreement, in a realistic and costeffective way.

Global oil demand continues to grow in the Stated Policies Scenario, but it loses momentum over the next two decades. From 97 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2018, demand rises by around 1 mb/d on average every year to 2025. There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use. Demand increases by 0.1 mb/d each year on average during the 2030s and ends up at 106 mb/d in 2040. By contrast, oil demand peaks very soon in the Sustainable Development Scenario and falls back to 67 mb/d by 2040, a level last seen in 1990.

Over the next two decades, global demand for natural gas grows more than fourtimes faster than demand for oil in the Stated Policies Scenario. Natural gas sees broad-based growth across the energy economy, in contrast to oil where growth is concentrated in parts of the transport sector (trucks, shipping and aviation) and petrochemicals.

Global coal demand increased for the second straight year in 2018, driven by strong electricity demand in developing Asian countries. This gradually rising trajectory is maintained in the Current Policies Scenario, but in the Stated Policies Scenario, demand is essentially flat, ending up in 2040 at around 5 400 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce). Declines in China (-9%), United States (-40%) and European Union (-73%) are offset by rising demand in India (+97%) and Southeast Asia (+90%). Overall, coal use in power generation decreases and its industrial use expands.

Electricity is at the heart of modern economies, powering communications, healthcare, industry, education, comfort and entertainment. In the Stated Policies Scenario, global electricity demand grows at 2.1% per year to 2040, twice the rate of primary energy demand. This raises electricity’s share in total final energy consumption from 19% in 2018 to 24% in 2040. Electricity plays a larger role in the Sustainable Development Scenario, reaching 31% of final energy consumption.

Total global final energy consumption was almost 10 000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018, an increase of 2.2% compared with 2017. In the Stated Policies Scenario, it rises to almost 12 700 Mtoe by 2040, an increase of around 1.1% per year on average, while global energy intensity improves by 2.3% per year. Implementation of the Stated Policies Scenario results in energy intensity improvements and an expansion of renewable energy, but the rate of improvement is not sufficient to achieve the energy-related Sustainable Development Goals.