After falling sharply this year, GDP is projected to expand by 3.7% in 2021. Rising macroeconomic imbalances and prolonged lockdown measures weigh on domestic demand and limit the pace of the recovery, despite a successful restructuring of public debt with private creditors. Employment has fallen strongly. Monetary financing of the high fiscal deficit is putting further pressure on inflation and the gap between the official and the parallel exchange rate. A gradual lifting of confinement measures will allow some recovery of private consumption, but investment will remain weak until imbalances are addressed.

Australia has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic less severely than other countries, although the state of Victoria experienced a significant surge in cases in the third quarter with corresponding lockdown orders. Real GDP is expected to contract by 3.8% in 2020, but is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022. The unemployment rate will rise initially as job retention schemes taper off in 2021 and will slowly decline thereafter. Household saving will gradually decrease and support private consumption. A risk is that the recovery in business and consumer sentiment is hampered by a rise in business insolvencies and renewed labour market weakness as policy support is scaled back in 2021.

GDP is estimated to contract by 8% in 2020 and projected to pick up only gradually over the coming two years, remaining well below its pre-crisis level by the end of 2022. Unemployment has increased significantly, and is projected to remain elevated. Weak tax revenues and a generous support package have resulted in a large budget deficit. Inflation will remain subdued in the near term.

Strongly hit by the COVID-19 crisis, GDP is set to contract by 7.5% in 2020 and recover slowly thereafter. The economy is currently affected by strict containment measures adopted in late 2020. While easing from current levels, such measures are expected to continue to fight sporadic virus outbreaks until a vaccine is rolled out. They will weigh on household consumption, with precautionary saving remaining high in the coming two years. Weak and uncertain growth prospects as well as squeezed profit margins are set to constrain business investment.

Despite new infections and fatalities remaining high, the economy has started to recover across a wide range of sectors. GDP growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2021 and 2.2% in 2022, but activity will still fall short of pre-pandemic levels by late 2022. Inflation will remain below target and high liquidity provision, including through record-low interest rates, will support investment. Fiscal vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the necessary policy response and public debt has risen. A failure to continue structural reform progress could hold back investment and future growth.

The first COVID-19 outbreak was smaller in Bulgaria than in many countries and the economy less severely impacted by confinement measures than expected in the first half of 2020. An economic contraction of 4.1% is expected in 2020 to be followed by a recovery, with growth of 3.3% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, driven by rising domestic demand and a moderate rebound in exports. Fiscal support for households and firms and high public investment are central to the strength of the recovery. Private investment will remain subdued given substantial uncertainty.

Recovery from an output decline of 5.4% in 2020 will be muted by drag from regional restrictions to combat COVID‑19 outbreaks and continued disruption to travel, hospitality and related sectors, leading to output growth of 3.5% in 2021. These developments will be echoed by a slow labour market recovery and low consumer price inflation. With vaccination against the virus set to become general in the latter half of 2021, diminished restrictions and a recovery in hard‑hit sectors will support growth in 2022. Growth of the public debt burden will slow.

Chile is set for a gradual recovery over the next two years, with activity returning to its pre‑pandemic levels in late 2022. GDP growth will be 4.2% during 2021, after a contraction of 6% in 2020. Private consumption will be a main driver of the recovery, initially sustained by measures implemented by the government to support households, a gradual improvement of the labour market sustained by hiring subsidies and withdrawals from pension funds. Investment will regain momentum at a slow pace, conditional on the evolution of the pandemic, driven by public infrastructure plans, supportive financing conditions and tax incentives. Recovering global demand will also be beneficial.

Following the steepest quarterly dive and subsequent surge on record in the first and second quarters of 2020, respectively, and then stabilisation in the third quarter, activity is projected to return to its past trajectory, with growth of about 8% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. New COVID‑19 cases have reappeared sporadically, but the coronavirus outbreak seems largely under control in most of the country. Investment, in particular debt- and stimulus-fuelled infrastructure investment, has boosted growth in 2020. Real estate investment has also remained strong. Exports have boomed on the back of pent-up demand for masks and other COVID‑19‑related materials and equipment as well as teleworking-related goods. Consumption is still to recover from the hit caused by the outbreak. Even though sales of luxury goods are booming and box office revenues have reached new highs, the lack of a recovery in employment and falling household incomes mean that prospects for a full consumption recovery are not bright. Inflation is easing, despite elevated pork prices.

Growth has rebounded in many sectors of the economy, with the notable exception of tourism and entertainment. Unemployment is already starting to see a moderate decline. After a fall of 8¼ per cent in 2020, GDP is projected to rise by 3½ per cent in 2021 and 3¾ per cent in 2022, helped by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Inflation will be contained, owing to substantial spare capacity.

Costa Rica experienced a surge of infection cases in the second half of 2020, which delayed the easing of confinement measures. After a deep recession this year, GDP is projected to recover gradually in 2021 (by 2%) and gain momentum in 2022 (by 3.8%). As confinement measures are progressively lifted, domestic demand will recover, but remain subdued due to high unemployment. Uncertainty related to high public debt will weigh on investment. The rebound of the US economy will help exports recover, particularly of medical supply and business services.

GDP is estimated to contract by 6.8% in 2020, and projected to recover slowly, by 1.5%, in 2021. The economy has been hit hard by lockdown measures and a drop in trade. Additional containment measures, high uncertainty and weak sentiment amid the second outbreak will delay economic recovery until an effective vaccine is widely deployed towards the end of 2021. Fiscal support will help maintain household consumption, but investment will take longer to rebound. The unemployment rate will rise from low levels and inflation will slow.

The economy is projected to contract by around 4% in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery of nearly 2% in 2021 and 2½ per cent in 2022. Domestic demand is underpinned by a strong rebound in consumption and employment, following a smaller initial hit from the COVID-19 containment measures than elsewhere. Nevertheless, tightened restrictions during autumn and the weak external environment will hold back the recovery.

With a milder contraction than initially feared, GDP is set to fall by 4.7% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.4% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. Consumption is expected to strengthen as households regain confidence and draw down large savings set aside at the peak of the pandemic. Investment will also regain momentum on the back of improved expectations for industrial production, exports and the services sector. Inflation will remain subdued in 2021 before stabilising somewhat above 2%.

After a projected GDP decline of 7½ per cent in 2020, growth of 3½ and 3¼ per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, will bring output back to its pre-pandemic level only at the end of 2022. Persistent virus outbreaks and accompanying containment measures will continue to hamper activity until a vaccine is widely implemented. Private consumption and investment will be affected the most by pervasive uncertainty and low confidence. Unemployment is projected to rise until mid-2021, approaching double-digit rates, and fall only gradually afterwards. Fiscal support and subdued activity will keep Maastricht public debt above 100% of GDP. Failure to promote reallocation from declining activities towards those likely to expand would durably worsen growth prospects.

Recovery from the COVID-19 hit to the economy began in the second half of 2020, led by consumption and exports. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 4% in 2020 and is projected to expand by around 1½ per cent in 2021 and 1¾ per cent in 2022. Investment will be slow to recover owing to surplus capacity and uncertainty about the economic outlook. The unemployment rate will peak in 2021, but will remain high by the end of 2022. The main risk to the outlook is that virus infection rates rise again in Finland and its trading partners before an effective vaccination is implemented, delaying the recovery.

Activity is projected to fall by 9.1% in 2020 and expand by 6% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. After a second national lockdown at the end of 2020, the sanitary situation is assumed to improve only slowly. Despite sporadic local virus outbreaks, the easing of containment measures and the prospective rollout of an effective vaccine would still allow for a gradual reduction in precautionary saving and, eventually, a catch‑up in the most affected sectors (tourism and leisure services). As export markets recover, external demand and investment will pick up. The unemployment rate will peak around end-2021 and remain above its pre‑crisis level in 2022. By the end of 2022, public debt is expected to increase to 120% of GDP.

Activity is projected to contract by around 5½ per cent in 2020, driven by falling private consumption, business investment and exports. Growth is set to recover slowly to 2.8% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. Private consumption and exports initially rebounded rapidly, but demand for services will stay weak into 2021 as virus containment measures have been tightened. Further uncertainty will constrain the recovery of investment as well as demand for capital goods exports before general deployment of a vaccine increases confidence. Short-time work has cushioned the increase in unemployment, but sustained falls in the unemployment rate are not expected until after mid-2021, once employees on short-time work have been reabsorbed.

Greece’s economy is set to contract by 10% in 2020 and to recover gradually in 2021, as ongoing virus outbreaks and restrictions weigh on services activity, exports, employment and investment. In 2022, the recovery is projected to accelerate, as the virus is better controlled with a vaccine having become more generally deployed, restrictions being eased globally and the government implementing new investment projects. Controlling the pandemic sooner would hasten the recovery, reducing risks of rising insolvencies, non‑performing loans and declining well-being.

Following a contraction of 5.7% in 2020, GDP is projected to rebound by about 3% per annum on average in the next two years. New restrictions to contain a second wave of infections this autumn will delay the recovery. As restrictions are lifted, an effective vaccine is deployed, and global trade picks up, domestic and external demand will begin to recover from mid‑2021 onwards. The labour market will improve from mid‑2021 as well, while inflation will continue to be elevated.

Output is set to contract by almost 8% in 2020, but is projected to expand by around 3% per annum in both 2021 and 2022, thanks to rising household consumption. Goods exports are expected to rise, although foreign tourism will take longer to gain momentum. Business investment will remain weak, but housing and public investment will pick up. Given the continued impact of the pandemic, especially on international travel, until a vaccine is deployed widely, activity will still fall short of its pre-crisis level at the end of 2022. Unemployment continues to rise and will exceed 7% in mid-2021, and wage growth will slow.

After experiencing one of the world’s tightest lockdowns and recording the deepest GDP contraction among G20 economies in the second quarter of 2020, the Indian economy is recovering, albeit with some hesitancy. While agriculture has benefited from favourable weather conditions, manufacturing and services are penalised by remaining containment measures and uncertainty. Significant social hardship persists and the fall in the unemployment rate must be seen against the background of declining labour force participation. Supply chain disruptions have pushed inflation above the target range of the central bank. GDP is set to shrink by 10% in fiscal year (FY) 2020-21, with household consumption sluggish and investment largely unresponsive to easier monetary conditions. Despite a projected rebound of around 8% and 5% in FY 2021‑22 and FY 2022-23, respectively, due to base effects and returning confidence, the GDP loss will be substantial.

The economy contracted sharply in the first half of 2020 and GDP is set to shrink by 2.4% this year, the first recession since 1998. The 2021 rebound, provided containment measures are lifted, will be only partial. With lingering concerns about the health situation and consumer and business confidence remaining low, growth is projected to remain below trend in 2021, with severe consequences on incomes and living standards, before picking up to 5% in 2022. Trade prospects, however, are supportive, as key Northeast Asian markets recover and new agreements including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) come into force.

After suffering a sharp fall in activity during 2020, the economy is projected to recover in 2021 and expand at over 4% in 2022. Positive contributions to growth from the external sector mask domestic weaknesses, particularly in investment. Public support for employees and businesses is helping to hold up domestic demand while the authorities grapple with bringing the coronavirus under control. As recently imposed and possible future sanitary restrictions are lifted, with an effective vaccine being rolled out, and uncertainty about future trading relations is clarified, domestic demand is set to strengthen gradually.

After a decline of around 4¼ per cent in 2020, GDP is projected to grow by around 2¼ per cent in 2021 and 4¼ per cent in 2022. Increased unemployment, and the likely rise in insolvencies after the second national lockdown, will weigh on the recovery of consumption and investment, despite government support to households and firms. From the second half of 2021, domestic and external demand will gain some strength as an effective immunisation against the virus is implemented. Unemployment will decline slowly but remain above pre-crisis levels at the end of 2022.

After falling sharply in 2020, GDP is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. Lockdowns and uncertainty are weighing on activity, although government support has mitigated the effects on firms and households. Substantial job creation, especially for the low-skilled, women and youth, will return only in 2022, when an effective vaccine is expected to have been deployed widely, stimulating consumption, and easing precautionary saving. Investment and exports are expected to recover gradually alongside the manufacturing sector. Supportive fiscal policy is resulting in rising public debt levels, but interest rates are projected to remain low. Higher growth is needed to improve the fiscal position in the medium term.

The COVID-19 shock in early 2020 triggered a major recession and real GDP is projected to shrink by around 5¼ per cent this year. The economy is gradually strengthening although growth remains sluggish. Ongoing difficulties in bringing COVID-19 infections under control hold back domestic demand. As restrictions are lifted in the near term, consumption is expected to recover, supported by government subsidies and incentives. In addition, recovering external demand, as the sanitary situation of trading partners improves, will sustain export growth. On the other hand, private investment is set to remain relatively subdued. Overall, GDP is projected to expand by 2¼ per cent in 2021 and 1½ per cent in 2022, assuming further economic stimulus.

Effective measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 have limited the estimated fall in GDP to just over 1% in 2020, the smallest decline in the OECD. Activity is picking up on the back of a rebound in consumption, bolstered by large government transfers to households, and a recovery in exports, led by semiconductors. The sizeable digital and green investments of the New Deal will buttress the recovery. GDP is projected to grow at about 3% per annum in 2021 and 2022, but the recovery remains vulnerable to a further spread of the virus in Korea or abroad until an effective vaccine is deployed in the latter half of 2021.

GDP is set to contract by 4.3% in 2020, before growing by 2.4% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022. Activity rose rapidly in the third quarter of 2020 after containment measures had been withdrawn. However, the recovery has been interrupted by the recent tightening of containment measures in response to a renewed virus outbreak, and is projected to resume at a slow rate when the restraints are relaxed. Private consumption will strengthen as household confidence and net disposable incomes increase. Investment will also gradually regain momentum. The labour market has been quite resilient. However, unemployment will remain elevated in 2021 due to a slow recovery in labour-intensive sectors.

Following a relatively mild contraction, GDP is projected to grow by around 3% in 2021 and 2022 on average, as confidence strengthens and investment picks up slowly with the rollout of an effective vaccine. Unemployment has risen in the wake of the crisis and, despite some gradual decline, it will remain above the pre-pandemic level. Inflation will move upwards in tandem with the revival of economic activity.

After a 4.4% contraction in 2020, the economy is projected to expand by a moderate 1.5% in 2021 and by 3.8% in 2022. The introduction of lockdowns in neighbouring countries will significantly restrain exports in the fourth quarter of 2020, causing the economy to contract. GDP will start growing again in the first quarter of 2021. The recovery will gather pace in the following quarters on the back of more dynamic external demand and greater confidence of domestic consumers and firms due to a rollout of an effective vaccine. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at the beginning of 2021 at around 7.2% and to decline to 6.2% at the end of 2022. Risks to the projections are to the downside and include less favourable epidemiological developments, persistent labour market weakness, and increased distress in financial markets. On the upside, a faster disappearance of the pandemic, associated with efficient vaccine distribution, could lead to a stronger rebound in private consumption and investment.

After the sharp decline in 2020, GDP is projected to grow at 3.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022. Economic growth will be led by exports, particularly from manufacturing firms integrated into global value chains. Private consumption will strengthen mildly, aided by robust remittances, a slowly improving labour market and a boost in confidence as an effective vaccine is rolled out. Ample spare capacity will keep inflation contained. The pandemic is causing significant increases in poverty, inequalities and gender gaps.

GDP is set to fall by 4.6% in 2020 before picking up by 0.8% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022. Consumption will rebound in 2021 as households scale back precautionary savings, while investment recovers only moderately due to lingering uncertainty. Unemployment and bankruptcies are expected to peak in the second half of 2021 when support measures will be phased out.

After a rebound in the second half of 2020 from the COVID-19 slump, economic growth in 2021 will average around 2¾ per cent, with rising unemployment weighing on private consumption and high uncertainty holding back business investment. Assuming that the border re-opens at the beginning of 2022 after a rollout of an effective vaccine around the world, tourism and immigration will drive further the recovery, with economic growth in 2022 of just over 2½ per cent. Until immunisation is attained, the recovery may be interrupted by intermittent localised COVID-19 outbreaks and associated containment measures.

The recovery from a decline in mainland output of 3.2% in 2020 will be muted by continued localised restrictions to tackle COVID-19 outbreaks, weak oil-sector investment and continued disruption to travel, hospitality and related sectors. Real mainland GDP is projected to increase by 3.1% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. Labour market recovery will be correspondingly slow and consumer price inflation will remain muted. Diminished need for restrictions as an effective vaccine is rolled out, and associated pick-ups in hard‑hit sectors and rising confidence, will contribute to output growth in 2022.

GDP is estimated to have fallen by 3.5% in 2020 and is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. After a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020, owing to pent-up consumption and government support, output is set to fall again in end-2020 as new restrictions have been introduced to contain the second outbreak of the virus. Domestic demand will regain momentum in 2021 and 2022, with the prospect and actual deployment of an effective COVID-19 vaccine. Unemployment is expected to peak in 2021 and slowly decrease afterwards.

GDP is set to fall by 8.4% in 2020 before recovering by 1.7% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022. The pick-up in 2021 will mainly be supported by pent-up demand. Afterwards, a broader recovery is projected to unfold, notably in the most affected sectors such as tourism and hospitality, under the assumption of an improved sanitary situation as an effective vaccine is deployed. The unemployment rate will peak in 2021 and remain above its pre-crisis level through the end of 2022. Public debt (Maastricht definition) is expected to reach 139% of GDP in 2022.

After a 5.3% decline in 2020, GDP is projected to grow by 2% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. The pandemic will have long-lasting negative effects on the economy. Until an effective vaccine is widely deployed in the latter half of 2021, sporadic virus outbreaks and related containment measures will weaken trade prospects and continue to hit activity in the most affected sectors, such as transport and hospitality. EU programmes will sustain investment and help to contain increases in unemployment, but the deterioration of labour market conditions and a likely surge in bankruptcies in 2021 will hamper the recovery.

After contracting by 6.3% in 2020, the economy is projected to grow by around 2.7% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Consumption will recover gradually on the back of higher disposable income, improving labour market conditions and increased household confidence as an effective vaccine is rolled out. Investment growth will be limited by high uncertainty, weakened corporate balance sheets and low capacity utilisation. Unemployment is set to fall gradually, but will remain above pre‑crisis levels at the end of 2022. Inflation will remain subdued given considerable economic slack.

GDP is set to fall by 7.5% in 2020 and grow by 3.4% in 2021 as the effects of the pandemic will continue to disturb economic activity until at least mid-2021. From then until the end of the projection horizon in 2022, investment and exports will be the main engines of growth thanks to higher demand in trading partner countries, improvements in the epidemiological situation, increased household confidence due to the rolling out of an effective vaccine, and the effects of the EU stimulus plan.

An early and long lockdown to tackle the virus outbreak led to a significant decrease in economic activity in the first half of 2020. A substantial rebound is expected in the second half of the year, driven by high demand and favourable prices for South Africa’s exports. Near-term growth will nevertheless be modest owing to subdued domestic demand. Household consumption will remain low as unemployment will remain high. Private investment will be restrained by a lack of confidence. GDP is set to contract by 8.1% in 2020 before increasing by 3.1% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022.

After the steep decline in 2020, GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Localised restrictions to address COVID-19 outbreaks and continued disruption to travel and tourism will be a drag on the recovery until an effective vaccine is widely deployed. High uncertainty and adverse labour market conditions will weigh on private consumption. As external demand growth recovers gradually, exports will contribute to growth in 2021‑22. The unemployment rate is projected to remain high.

The Swedish economy is gradually recovering from the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, GDP is projected to expand by 3.3% in both 2021 and 2022. Nevertheless, high unemployment and ongoing distancing will limit the pick-up in household consumption. Low capacity utilisation and uncertainties hold back business investment. Exports will gradually pick up as the global economy recovers. Unemployment will decrease slowly despite the economic recovery, as increases in working time from low levels will precede new recruitments.

The economy is set to contract by 4.7% in 2020 and is projected to rebound by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022. Activity will only reach its pre-crisis level in 2022. Private investment and consumption will be held back by low confidence and high unemployment. Exports will be hindered by subdued growth in partner countries. A strong second wave of infections heightens uncertainty, but a widespread implementation of an effective vaccine in the latter part of 2021 should improve the sanitary situation.

The recovery started during the summer, driven by vigorous quasi-fiscal stimulus and external demand, now faces significant headwinds. The number of COVID-19 cases surged again in autumn. Policy support has been scaled down to contain the current account deficit, inflation and exchange rate depreciation. GDP is set to contract by 1.3% in 2020, and – absent renewed macroeconomic tensions – it is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. Unemployment is expected to increase. Contingent liabilities and the current account deficit remain very large and high risk premia and the exchange rate depreciation have hampered the outlook. Recent stability-oriented policy measures can enhance domestic and international sentiment and support the recovery.

GDP is set to contract again in the fourth quarter of 2020 as virus containment measures are implemented, and to fall by 11.2% in 2020 as a whole. Growth of 4.2% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022 is projected to be driven by a rebound of consumption, while business investment will remain weak due to spare capacity and continued uncertainty. Until an effective vaccine is broadly deployed, risks of further outbreaks will dent confidence. Increased border costs will weigh on imports and exports from 2021 as the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and is assumed to enter a new, less comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union. Labour market withdrawals and unemployment will increase even though the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme continues to support employment. Bankruptcies are set to rise, although extensions to crisis loan schemes are set to soften the increase.

The economy is recovering following the sharp fall in GDP and dramatic rise in the unemployment rate in the first half of 2020. Real GDP is anticipated to contract by 3.7% in 2020, before rising by 3.2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. The unemployment rate will gradually fall, but will remain elevated compared with the pre‑pandemic period. This reflects activity in some sectors, such as hospitality and transportation, continuing to be impacted by the pandemic and impediments to cross-sectoral labour reallocation. A general rollout of an effective vaccine in the latter half of 2021 will allow an easing of containment measures and strengthen confidence.

The COVID-19 crisis is set to leave a serious mark on the economic and social fabric. GDP is expected to fall by almost 9% in 2020, followed by only a partial recovery as growth is estimated to be below 6% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Private consumption will not return to its pre-crisis level before the end of 2022, and investment will not have recovered by that time. Difficulties in access to health care are exacerbating the risks. The recession is affecting all sectors, and tourism in particular, with the partial exception of agriculture. Consumer prices have slowed, thus curbing the erosion of household purchasing power. The current account deficit will narrow in the second half of 2020, but will widen again as domestic demand picks up.