New Zealand ranks highly on most indicators of well-being, but incomes are below the OECD average due to low labour productivity. Low labour productivity is only partly explained by the industry composition of the NZ economy and is primarily a consequence of sustained low multi-factor productivity growth within industries, as well as weak investment. Economic geography is an important factor in New Zealand’s poor productivity performance, as the small size and remoteness of the economy diminish its access to global markets, the scale and efficiency of domestic businesses, the level of competition, and the ability to benefit from innovation at the global frontier. Policy and institutions are generally supportive of productivity growth, but there are a number of areas where there is scope for reforms that would help offset the country’s geographical disadvantages and improve the welfare of New Zealanders over the coming decades. This includes promoting international connections, removing barriers to fixed capital investment (including taxation), accessing benefits from agglomeration by improving urban planning and infrastructure provision, enhancing competition and increasing investment in innovation and intangibles.

Technological change is increasing the productivity of highly skilled workers but creating more challenging labour-market conditions for their low-skilled counterparts. These pressures are likely to grow, especially in light of progress being made in Artificial Intelligence. The NZ labour force is upskilling to meet these challenges, but more progress will be needed to keep ahead of the race with technology. Young New Zealanders will need to continue their education to higher levels than in the past and acquire skills that are more highly valued in the labour market. To maintain valuable skills, workers of all ages will need to engage more in lifelong learning. Some will need to retrain when their occupation becomes obsolete. Getting the most out of skills will also depend on allocating skills to their most productive uses. Reducing New Zealand’s high rates of qualification and skills mismatches would boost both wages and productivity. With the possibility of more workers being displaced than in the past, greater efforts may need to be considered to help them get back into jobs.