Over the past decade, the growth potential of the Hungarian economy has declined substantially. Trend productivity has ceased to increase, and investment has fallen to historically low levels. To an important extent, the explanation lies in a business environment characterised by high administrative burdens, regulatory volatility, barriers to growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and entrepreneurship, and limited competition in major non-tradable sectors, problems which have sometimes become worse in recent years. Under these conditions, many SMEs find it hard to leave semi-informality and grow. Large multinational firms operating in manufacturing often have supplier networks weakly anchored in Hungary, while those in the non-tradable sectors sometimes face little competitive pressure; in both cases, positive spillovers to the domestic economy remain limited.Steps should be taken both at the economy-wide level and in specific sectors to increase investment and restore productivity growth. Such measures must include fostering greater regulatory stability, inter alia by reducing the flow of new regulation and improving its quality, not least in taxation. Investor confidence would benefit from promoting trust and transparency in public institutions. Apart from vigorous competition enforcement across the economy, it is essential to remove sector-specific obstacles to competition, such as barriers to entry of different types, lock-in effects and distortive regulated prices, in retail, professional services, energy, and telecommunications.

Significant labour market mismatches and insufficient mobility penalise employment and productivity. Mismatches have above all a skills dimension, with an excess of low-skilled workers and a possible lack of skilled workers in certain domains. Reducing the high tax wedge on low salaries and avoiding excessive minimum wage increases would support demand for low-skilled labour. In the longer term, upgrading the labour supply requires improving educational outcomes, especially of disadvantaged students, and making the school-to-work transition less abrupt. To facilitate good matching and enhance sectoral mobility, a somewhat longer duration of unemployment benefits and an upscaled Public Employment Service would be of value, as well as greater focus on reintegration in the public works programme and more efficient and developed lifelong learning. Besides skills mismatches, important geographic mismatches are illustrated by high and persistent regional disparities in the unemployment rate. Mobility is hampered by the underdevelopment of the rental housing market, while there is room to enhance the efficiency of public transport to further support commuting.