Borders and Conflicts in North and West Africa
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This publication examines the role of border regions in shaping patterns of violence since the end of the 1990s in North and West Africa. Using the innovative OECD Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), the report looks at the growing relationship between political violence and borderlands at the regional level, by analysing more than 170 000 violent events between January 1997 and June 2021 and through the exploration of case studies in the Central and Eastern Sahel. Violence in border regions is both more intense in terms of the number of victims and more diffuse geographically than ever before. This report combines quantitative data on the location of violent events and victims, their mapping over time and space, and an analysis of the actors in conflict to answer three crucial questions i) Are borderlands more violent than other spaces? ii) Has the intensity of violence in border regions increased over time? iii) Are some borderlands more violent than others? The growing importance and complexity of transnational conflicts and transnational violent groups in North and West Africa calls for a more place-based analysis in order to create better tailored and more flexible policy options.
Also available in: French
How borders shape conflict in North and West Africa
Chapter 1 examines the increasing importance of North and West African border regions in the development of armed conflicts since the end of the 1990s. Building on a disaggregated analysis of more than 171 000 violent events, the chapter shows that there is a clear empirical relationship between the number of incidents of violence and the distance to borders. Border regions are indeed more violent than other regions in general. The chapter also shows that the relationship of violent events to borders varies significantly over time as discrete episodes of conflict have waxed and waned within the region. Specifically, border violence has shifted from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel since the mid-2000s. Finally, the chapter shows that, far from being solely determined by state failure, border violence reflects larger political issues that can threaten a state’s very existence.
Also available in: French
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