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The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa

image of The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa

African governments are increasingly confronted with new forms of political violence. The situation is particularly worrying in the Sahara-Sahel where violence is on the rise. This degrading security situation has prompted African countries and their partners to intervene militarily to stabilise the region and to prevent the spread of extremism and violence against civilians. However, these initiatives face many obstacles due to the transnational nature and geography of violence. Tensions regionalise across state borders when armed groups, defeated by counter-insurgency efforts, relocate to other countries. This study maps the evolution of violence across North and West Africa, with a particular focus on Mali, Lake Chad and Libya. In the regions experiencing the highest levels of political insecurity, it identifies whether and how conflicts tend to cluster or spread, potentially across national borders. The work is based on a new spatial indicator of political violence designed to assess the long-term evolution of conflicts and provide policy options.

English Also available in: French

The changing geography of conflict in North and West Africa

Chapter 4 analyses the changing geography of conflict in North and West Africa since the late 1990s. The chapter shows that conflicts tend to involve numerous nonstate actors with diverging agendas, and target civilians more systematically than before. Border regions tend to attract a disproportionate number of violent events and casualties. Using a novel Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), the chapter then shows that violence has both relocated and expanded over time. Contrary to popular belief that global extremist ideas fuelled by transnational groups spread like wildfire across the region, the chapter shows that conflict is largely localised. Less than one-third of the regions with violence exhibit signs of diffusion. However, it also confirms that the geography of violence is less isolated than 20 years ago. Multiple clusters of high-intensity regions have formed in the Sahel, where violence is spilling over to adjacent regions and countries. These clusters are more likely to be surrounded by a periphery of lower-intensity regions than in the past.

English Also available in: French

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