Tunisians are facing the worst crisis in a generation, as COVID-19 hit an economy that was already slowing down. Macroeconomic policy through fiscal stimulus and monetary easing limited the depth and severity of the recession, but the pandemic has exacerbated structural weaknesses, in particular low investment and job creation, high unemployment and informality, mismatch between skills demand and supply, and outward migration of high-skilled professionals. Children who have been deprived of school for a long period will face severe challenges in resuming normal life. The second OECD Economic Survey takes stock of progress made since 2018 and makes recommendations in key policy areas such as public spending, state-owned enterprises, employment, education, vocational training, trade, taxation and the business environment. Implementing such reforms would produce a large growth dividend and put public debt on a more sustainable path. But unless bold action is taken soon, the crisis will have a lasting effect on the potential of Tunisia to resume its income convergence process.

SPECIAL FEATURES: EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS

Les Tunisiens sont confrontés à la pire crise depuis une génération, conséquence du COVID-19, frappant une économie qui ralentissait déjà. Les politiques macroéconomiques ont limité la gravité de la récession, mais la pandémie a exacerbé les faiblesses structurelles, en particulier le faible taux d’investissement et de création d’emplois, le chômage élevé et l’informalité, l’inadéquation entre la demande et l’offre de compétences et l’émigration des professionnels hautement qualifiés. Les enfants, qui ont été privés d’école pendant une longue période, devront faire face à de vrais défis pour reprendre une vie normale. La deuxième Étude économique de l’OCDE fait le point sur les progrès réalisés depuis 2018 et émet des recommandations dans des domaines politiques clés tels que les dépenses publiques, les entreprises publiques, l’emploi, l’éducation, la formation professionnelle, le commerce, la fiscalité et l’environnement des affaires. La mise en œuvre de telles réformes produirait un dividende de croissance important et mettrait la dette publique sur une trajectoire plus soutenable. Mais si des mesures courageuses ne sont pas prises rapidement, la crise aura un effet durable sur le potentiel de la Tunisie à reprendre son processus de convergence des revenus.

CHAPITRES SPÉCIAUX : EMPLOI ET COMPÉTENCES

The COVID-19 crisis caused profound disruptions in the global economy, with SMEs and entrepreneurs, particularly hard hit. Swift measures implemented by governments and public financial institutions provided a crucial lifeline for liquidity-strapped SMEs.

The 10th edition of Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs 2022: An OECD Scoreboard sheds light on the impacts of the crisis on SME finance, tracking the latest developments in debt, equity, asset-based finance, and framework conditions, along with recent policy developments for 48 countries around the world. It shows that lending continued to flow to SMEs during the pandemic, with unprecedented growth in outstanding SME loans. What is more, credit conditions relaxed significantly: interest rates registered record lows, interest rate spreads narrowed considerably, and collateral requirements declined in most Scoreboard countries. In contrast, alternative sources of finance such as leasing and factoring declined significantly, in part because of the large uptake of credit. Evidence on equity finance shows a resilient venture capital sector, with some fragility in early-stage finance.

The thematic chapter of this report assesses the evolution of SME financing support during the crisis, from the rescue to recovery phases. It documents a fall in the level of SME-related support in national recovery packages compared to earlier rescue measures.

La guerra in Ucraina lascerà profonde cicatrici nei Paesi dell’OCSE, e non solo. I costi umanitari sono già estremamente elevati: milioni di persone sono in fuga dalla zona del conflitto.

Il presente rapporto intermedio esamina le potenziali conseguenze economiche e sociali della guerra. Questo conflitto potrebbe rallentare la ripresa globale dalla pandemia da COVID-19 e far aumentare ulteriormente l’inflazione a livello mondiale.

China’s economy has strongly rebounded from the deep dive following the COVID-19 outbreak and has returned to its gradually slowing path. The rebalancing from investment to consumption, from manufacturing to services, and from rural to urban migration have all been set back by the pandemic, but need to restart to make growth sustainable and inclusive. The investment-driven recovery kept investment efficiency low, indicating continued capital misallocation. Corporate debt climbed to pre-pandemic highs: borrowing has been fuelled by crisis-related and more long-standing factors, including implicit guarantees for state-owned enterprises and other public entities. Slowing growth and continuing tax cuts will imply lower fiscal resources to make growth more inclusive, thus stable revenue sources from personal income taxes and dividends from state-owned enterprises are needed. Although the population is aging rapidly, China can still reap the “reform dividend” with measures to keep up the sustained growth of productivity. Reforms that enhance competition in product markets are among those that can potentially bring about significant productivity gains.

The Economic Survey of China assesses recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth such as product market reforms.

SPECIAL FEATURES: BURDEN ON START-UPS; LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD BETWEEN PUBLIC/PRIVATE AND DOMESTIC/FOREIGN FIRMS

The effect of the war in Ukraine on OECD countries, and beyond, will be profound. The humanitarian cost is already extremely high: millions of people are fleeing the war zone.

This Interim Report focuses on the potential economic and social consequences of the war. The war is expected to slow the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and further push up inflation worldwide.

Der Ukrainekrieg wird tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die OECD-Länder und die Welt insgesamt haben. Die humanitären Kosten sind bereits gewaltig: Millionen Menschen fliehen aus dem Kriegsgebiet.

Dieser Zwischenausblick stellt eine Aktualisierung des OECD-Wirtschaftsausblicks vom Dezember 2021 dar. Er befasst sich mit den möglichen wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Folgen des Kriegs, der die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft von der Coronapandemie verlangsamen und die Inflation weltweit noch stärker in die Höhe treiben dürfte.

La guerre en Ukraine laissera des traces profondes dans les pays de l'OCDE, et au-delà. Le coût humanitaire est déjà extrêmement élevé, avec des millions de personnes qui fuient la zone de guerre.

Ce rapport intermédiaire examine principalement les conséquences économiques et sociales potentielles de la guerre. Ce conflit va sans doute ralentir la reprise mondiale après la pandémie de COVID-19 et faire augmenter encore l'inflation dans le monde.

Après une grave récession en 2020, l’activité économique a rebondi. Néanmoins, des perturbations des approvisionnements et un faible taux de vaccination rendent plus incertain le rythme futur de la reprise. Un plan de relance ambitieux et de volumineux apports de fonds de l’Union européenne (UE) offrent une occasion unique de renforcer l’économie, mais la mise en œuvre efficace et en temps voulu de ce plan exigera des efforts soutenus d’amélioration de la passation des marchés publics et de la gestion des investissements publics. À moyen terme, le vieillissement rapide de la population va exacerber les problèmes budgétaires et peser sur la croissance à long terme. Pour se préparer au vieillissement de la société, il faudra engager des réformes des retraites ainsi que des soins de santé et de longue durée, afin d’allonger les vies actives, d’améliorer l’état de santé d’une population vieillissante et de renforcer l’efficience des dépenses publiques. Dans le même temps, le vieillissement démographique accentue la nécessité de rehausser la productivité. Pour relancer le processus de convergence économique et rendre la croissance plus inclusive et durable, il faut prendre des mesures destinées à améliorer l’adéquation des compétences, à renforcer les capacités d’innovation nationales et à améliorer la tarification des externalités des activités préjudiciables à l’environnement.

THÈME SPÉCIAL : RELEVER LES DÉFIS LIÉS AU VIEILLISSEMENT DÉMOGRAPHIQUE

Latvia has enjoyed continuing catch-up in per capita incomes with the more affluent OECD countries through the pandemic, despite slow progress in vaccination. Fiscal policy has handled the health-system challenges while protecting jobs and firms but could do more to ease inequality and poverty, especially among the elderly. Latvia’s population has been shrinking for decades and will continue to do so. This means it must focus on increasing employment among those of working age. That implies a need to tackle the large gender wage gap that is discouraging women’s labour force participation, delay retirement and keep everyone in good health. Nevertheless, public health-care spending is low, causing heavy out-of-pocket expenses, many unmet needs and, along with widespread poor lifestyle choices, short life expectancy. Looking ahead, further economic progress will depend on easing the supply of credit; overcoming remaining labour-market informality and official bribery and corruption; and encouraging greater exploitation of export-market opportunities. Enhancing export performance calls for redoubled efforts to boost skills of youth and adults so that digitalisation can proceed quickly, reforming the innovation system to intensify business and university R&D activities, improving transport infrastructure and the governance of state-owned enterprises, and smoothing the business environment for all firms.

SPECIAL FEATURES: AGEING, HEALTH CARE, EXPORTS

Norway has been more successful than many countries in limiting the spread and impact of COVID-19. The country has maintained good outcomes on many economic and social indicators. GDP per capita remains among the highest in the OECD. However, there are challenges in sustaining good outcomes amid post-pandemic economic adjustment, continued population aging and the urgency of tackling climate change. Labour force participation needs to increase to ensure the high levels of employment that are key to Norway’s socio-economic model. Higher productivity growth is essential for businesses to remain competitive. Meanwhile, economic activity must continue to adjust to achieve a faster decline in greenhouse-gas emissions.

Housing in Norway has become even more expensive following a new surge in prices during the pandemic. This has further raised risks to macro-financial stability from elevated mortgage debt. Strong price growth has also made it harder for first-time homebuyers to enter the market. Many renters meanwhile devote a large proportion of their income to paying for housing. Fixing distortive taxation of dwellings will be essential to improve affordability, as will greater focus on the supply of housing.

SPECIAL FEATURE: HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Mexico is recovering from a pandemic that had deep economic and social impacts. Informal workers, women and youth were particularly hit, exacerbating long-standing social challenges. Mexico’s solid macroeconomic policy framework safeguarded macroeconomic stability. But medium term growth prospects have weakened and growth over the past two decades has been low. Poverty rates and regional inequalities remain high. Informality, financial exclusion or corruption have hindered productivity growth. Low female participation rates and weak investment since 2015 have also impacted medium-term growth prospects. Maintaining and strengthening Mexico’s solid macroeconomic policy framework is key for stability. The ability of fiscal policy to smooth out economic cycles and support growth during recessions can be enhanced, creating more space for public investment. Rebooting private investment and turning around low productivity growth are fundamental priorities. This will require comprehensive reforms to improve business regulations, boost competition, reduce informality and corruption and transition towards carbon neutrality. Widening access to finance and strengthening digitalization would provide more equal opportunities and help to boost growth.

SPECIAL FEATURE: EXPANDING ACCESS TO FINANCE

México se está recobrando de una pandemia que ha tenido un profundo impacto económico y social. Los trabajadores informales, las mujeres y los jóvenes se han visto especialmente afectados, lo que ha agravado retos sociales preexistentes. El sólido marco de política macroeconómica de México ha salvaguardado la estabilidad macroeconómica. Sin embargo, las perspectivas de crecimiento a medio plazo se han debilitado y el ritmo de crecimiento en las dos últimas décadas ha sido bajo. La pobreza y la desigualdad entre regiones todavía son elevadas. Factores como la informalidad, la exclusión financiera o la corrupción han obstaculizado el crecimiento de la productividad. Las bajas tasas de participación femenina y una inversión débil desde 2015 también han afectado a las perspectivas de crecimiento a medio plazo. Mantener y fortalecer el sólido marco de política macroeconómica de México es clave para la estabilidad. La capacidad de la política fiscal para suavizar los ciclos económicos y apoyar el crecimiento en las fases de recesión puede reforzarse, ampliando así el margen para fortalecer la inversión pública. Reactivar la inversión privada y dar impulso al bajo crecimiento de la productividad son prioridades fundamentales. Ello conlleva la necesidad de acometer reformas de gran alcance con el fin de mejorar la regulación aplicable a las empresas, intensificar la competencia, reducir la informalidad, seguir luchando contra la corrupción y efectuar la transición hacia la neutralidad de carbono. Ampliar el acceso a los servicios financieros e impulsar la digitalización comportarían una mayor igualdad de oportunidades y contribuirían a potenciar el crecimiento.

CAPÍTULO ESPECIAL: AMPLIAR EL ACCESO A SERVICIOS FINANCIEROS

L’économie italienne sort de la crise liée au COVID-19 en progressant régulièrement, grâce au déploiement de la campagne de vaccination et aux mesures généreuses de soutien budgétaire adoptées en faveur des ménages et des entreprises. D'importants risques pèsent cependant sur les perspectives, liés notamment aux variants et à la trajectoire des taux d’intérêt dans le monde. Pour que la croissance et l’emploi retrouvent leurs niveaux d'avant la pandémie, il va falloir améliorer la composition des dépenses publiques. Une telle évolution, conjuguée à la mise en œuvre des plans nationaux de relance et de résilience qui prévoient des mesures essentielles en matière de réformes structurelles et d’investissements, contribuera à accélérer la transition vers une économie plus verte et plus numérique. Pour y parvenir, il faudra mener à bien d'ambitieuses réformes législatives et administratives. Il sera indispensable d’améliorer la justice civile, l'administration de l’impôt et l’investissement public pour stimuler la croissance des revenus. Utiliser de manière plus efficace les informations sur les performances et les résultats des examens des dépenses pourrait aider à réaffecter les dépenses publiques en direction des activités les plus propices à la croissance. Dresser l’inventaire du stock de réglementations en vigueur et examiner la manière dont elles sont mises en œuvre permettrait d'améliorer l'environnement des entreprises. Des modes de recrutement agiles et des mécanismes permettant de mieux évaluer, récompenser et accompagner les performances des fonctionnaires permettraient d'atténuer les écarts de compétences qui se creusent au sein de la fonction publique. Améliorer la collaboration entre les multiples échelons de l’administration italienne permettrait d'améliorer la fourniture des services publics, par exemple s’agissant de l'accueil des jeunes enfants ou des politiques actives du marché du travail.

THÈME SPÉCIAL : RENFORCER L'EFFICACITÉ DU SECTEUR PUBLIC

The New Zealand economy recovered quickly from the COVID-19 shock thanks to effective virus containment, measures to protect jobs and incomes and highly expansionary macroeconomic policies but is now overheating and house prices have soared. The Reserve Bank has begun to tighten monetary and macroprudential policies with a view to achieving its price and financial stability objectives. Together with policy measures to increase housing supply, this should help moderate housing price inflation. While the fiscal deficit has begun to fall from the highs reached during the first wave of the COVID-19 shock, additional consolidation measures will be needed to put public finances on a sustainable path, including an increase in the pension eligibility age. New Zealand has considerable scope to boost productivity by fostering growth of its digital sector and stimulating digital innovation. This requires strengthening the domestic pipeline of digital skills, making sure that regulations evolve with technological change and facilitating exports by firms exploiting digital technologies. New Zealand has a solid institutional framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but needs to implement additional abatement measures to meet its objectives. The carbon price needs to increase substantially, combined with efficient complementary measures.

SPECIAL FEATURE: BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY THROUGH DIGITALISATION

Over the last two decades, Romania has converged rapidly towards the OECD average income per capita. Its economy has also proved resilient: after a deep contraction in 2020 triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, activity has rebounded fast. However, short and medium term challenges remain. The recent surge in inflation and the new pandemic wave require prudent macroeconomic policies. Eventually, fiscal sustainability needs to improve to cope with ageing. Productivity levels remain well below the OECD average, calling for reducing competition barriers, raising human capital, enhancing the regulatory framework, and improving transport infrastructure. Romania should seize the opportunity provided by the NextGeneration EU plan to boost investments for the green and digital transitions. Poverty remains high and some groups have difficulties to join the labour market. Active labour market policies need to be reinforced and access to training is a pre-requisite for addressing skills shortages. Finally, pursuing convergence to the highest OECD standards requires improving the rule of law and fighting corruption.

SPECIAL FEATURES: STRENGTHENING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR PRODUCTIVITY CONVERGENCE; IMPROVING LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS FOR STRONGER AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH