Poland has successfully managed a large inflow of refugees from Ukraine. The impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is overshadowing the outlook and economic growth is expected to slow to 0.9% this year before it recovers to 2.4% in 2024. Both monetary and fiscal policies should ensure that higher inflation does not become entrenched. Fiscal policy continues to support the economy in managing higher energy prices. Long term fiscal pressures need to be addressed, for instance by broadening the revenue base, improving spending efficiency and raising retirement age.

Digitalisation can help unleash the entrepreneurial potential of Polish businesses at home and in global markets but requires adequate skills. This requires the government to take a comprehensive approach across several policy areas, such as adult education, life-long learning and training for SMEs.

Poland has made progress in transitioning to net zero emissions by 2050, but the rate of decarbonisation needs to accelerate significantly. Setting out a clear long-term path for carbon prices would provide more clarity to households and businesses. A just energy transition requires supporting the most affected workers and regions.

SPECIAL FEATURE: DIGITALISING THE POLISH ECONOMY

Alongside a fast recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, macroeconomic policies and high commodity prices have contributed to surging inflation, growing external imbalances and implicit liabilities. These vulnerabilities reduce the economy’s resilience to shocks. Anchoring inflation expectations remains a key challenge going forward. Making the regulatory framework more predictable and flexible would help to strengthen economic resilience. Strict regulations limit the entry of new firms, shielding incumbents from internal and external competition. Ensuring a rules-based, level-playing field for firms requires enforcing rules without exemptions. More flexible labour markets would create more high-quality formal jobs but should be accompanied by a comprehensive reform programme that shifts job loss protection to a broader-based unemployment insurance scheme and well-designed activation policies. Ramping up efforts to increase female employment is key to address high rates of non-participation of women. Equipping young people with relevant skills would allow to make the most of the demographic dividend while also addressing rising skill mismatches.

SPECIAL FEATURE: LABOUR MARKET, EDUCATION AND SKILLS

Le Cadre d'action de l'OCDE sur la sécurité numérique aborde la dimension économique et sociale de la cybersécurité, souligne l'approche de l'OCDE en matière de politiques publiques de sécurité numérique, et permet aux décideurs d'utiliser les Recommandations de l'OCDE dans ce domaine. Le Cadre identifie également les liens entre les normes de sécurité numérique et d'autres normes et outils de l'OCDE.

L'OCDE est à l'avant-garde des efforts internationaux pour guider les décideurs dans le domaine des politiques publiques de sécurité numérique depuis 1990. L'OCDE est devenue la première instance internationale normalisatrice dans ce domaine. Les Recommandations de l'OCDE sur la sécurité numérique soutiennent les parties prenantes dans l'élaboration de politiques visant la prospérité économique et sociale, en accord avec la mission de l'OCDE d'aider les gouvernements à élaborer des "politiques meilleures pour des vies meilleures".

Costa Rica recovered well from the pandemic-induced recession. Sustained and resilient export performance continues to support growth, while consumption is hindered by high inflation and unemployment. The fiscal situation improved but remains challenging, requiring sustained efforts to contain spending and boost public sector efficiency for several years. Maintaining and reinforcing the commitment to foreign direct investment and trade, which has been key to diversify the export basket, and improving the conditions for domestic companies to thrive are key challenges to boost living standards and formal job creation. This would require reducing the regulatory burden, improving the tax mix, fostering competition in key markets and continuing decarbonisation and environment protection efforts. Supporting higher female labour participation and upgrading social protection will help to adapt to ongoing demographic changes and improve the equality of opportunities. Education and training are a high priority for Costa Rica that devotes to them one of the highest spending shares among OECD countries. However, educational outcomes remain poor and firms struggle to fill their vacancies, particularly in technical and scientific positions. Improving efficiency and quality of public spending in education is needed to better support growth and equity.

SPECIAL FEATURES: EDUCATION AND TRAINING; SKILLS

Costa Rica se recuperó bien de la recesión causada por la pandemia. El desempeño sostenido y resiliente de las exportaciones continúa favoreciendo el crecimiento, mientras que el consumo se ve obstaculizado por la alta inflación y el desempleo. La situación fiscal mejoró, pero continúa siendo desafiante, por lo que es necesario continuar haciendo esfuerzos para contener el gasto y aumentar la eficiencia del sector público durante varios años. Mantener y reforzar la apuesta por la inversión extranjera directa y el comercio, que ha sido clave para diversificar la canasta de las exportaciones, y mejorar las condiciones para que las empresas nacionales prosperen son desafíos importantes para mejorar los niveles de vida y la generación de empleo formal. Esto requeriría reducir la carga regulatoria, mejorar la combinación de impuestos, fomentar una mayor competencia en mercados clave y continuar los esfuerzos para lograr la descarbonización y protección del medio ambiente. Promover una mayor participación laboral femenina y mejorar la protección social ayudarán a una mejor adaptación a los cambios demográficos continuos y a mejorar la igualdad de oportunidades. La educación y la formación son una prioridad importante para Costa Rica, que les dedica una de las proporciones de gasto más altas entre los países de la OCDE. Sin embargo, los resultados educativos no son satisfactorios y las empresas tienen dificultades para llenar las vacantes, en especial en puestos técnicos y científicos. Se precisa mejorar la eficiencia y la calidad del gasto público en educación para favorecer más el crecimiento y la equidad.

CAPÍTULO ESPECIAL: EDUCACIÓN AND FORMACIÓN, HABILIDADES

Greece has rebounded well from the COVID-19 crisis, generating strong employment growth. Increasing investment and exports, government support measures, implementation of the Greece 2.0 Recovery and Resilience Package and the reforms of the past decade have been supporting the economy. However, headwinds from surging energy prices and uncertainty following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine have slowed the recovery. Achieving and maintaining modest primary budget surpluses, better targeting energy support measures and maintaining public revenues while further broadening the tax base and improving its efficiency will further enhance Greece’s prospects of achieving an investment-grade sovereign debt rating. Maintaining the reform momentum, completing the restoration of banks’ health and continuing efforts to improve the business climate, can ensure that sustainable recovery continues over the longer term. This would also support Greece in raising further living standards as it adjusts to a changing climate and achieves net zero emissions. As elsewhere, the changing climate is already disrupting livelihoods and well-being in Greece. A well-chosen mix of carbon pricing, public infrastructure investments, raising buildings’ energy efficiency and moving transport into low-emission modes can achieve emission cuts cost-effectively, while making people better off with improved housing quality and mobility. Engaging all stakeholders, maintaining a consensus and supporting vulnerable households affected by the green economy transition will help ensure progress continues into the longer term.

SPECIAL FEATURE: THE GREEN ECONOMY TRANSITION

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has darkened the short-term economic outlook for Finland and increased the urgency of transitioning away from fossil energy. The Finnish economy is likely to contract over coming quarters, weighed down by high inflation, tightening monetary conditions and curtailment of Russian gas supplies to trading partner economies, but to recover in 2024 as these headwinds pass. The war has also worsened public finances, delaying needed consolidation measures to rebuild buffers to cope with future shocks and put public finances on a sustainable path. While Finland is on track to meet its gross greenhouse gas emissions abatement objectives, there is scope to reduce abatement costs, notably by replacing inefficient measures by a comprehensive carbon tax in the effort-sharing sector. New measures will also be needed to meet the forestry and other land-use targets, which are very challenging. Rebooting innovation ecosystems would help to increase Finland’s low productivity growth. This will entail not only increasing R&D spending, but also establishing a mission-oriented innovation policy and a more diversified innovation ecosystem, strengthening synergies between export promotion and innovation, and above all, increasing the supply of skilled workers.

SPECIAL FEATURE: REBOOTING INNOVATION ECOSYSTEMS

The OECD Policy Framework on Digital Security charts the economic and social dimension of cybersecurity, highlights the OECD approach to digital security policy and equips policymakers to use OECD digital security Recommendations in developing better policies. The Framework also identifies linkages with other policy areas addressed through existing OECD standards and tools.

The OECD has been at the forefront of international efforts on guiding policy makers in the area of digital security since 1990 and has become the primary international standard setter in this area. OECD Recommendations on digital security support stakeholders in developing digital security policies for economic and social prosperity, in line with the OECD’s mandate to help governments develop “better policies for better lives”.

The Irish economy weathered the COVID-19 pandemic and is coping well with the repercussions from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. While the fiscal position is currently strong, with buoyant revenues, a number of pressures arising from ageing, housing, health, and climate change create fiscal risks in the longer term. Ongoing and planned investments to boost housing supply and affordability and lower greenhouse gas emissions should be accompanied by reforms to reduce regulatory and legal hurdles, uncertainty, and high transaction costs. The government has launched a major reform of the health sector, Sláintecare. Boosting spending efficiency, reducing waiting times and simplifying the interaction of different parts of the system are key to achieve improved health sector performance and sustainability. Moving towards a more integrated system of primary, community and hospital care should be prioritised to increase spending efficiency and the capacity to meet future challenges. Improving data availability and governance as well as financial reporting and management can help track spending and reform implementation.

SPECIAL FEATURE: HEALTH SECTOR PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY

L'économie britannique s'est remise du choc du COVID-19 grâce à des mesures de soutien d'urgence protégeant les emplois et les revenus et à un déploiement rapide du vaccin, mais elle ralentit dans un contexte de pénurie persistante de l'offre et de hausse de l'inflation. La politique budgétaire doit trouver un équilibre entre un resserrement progressif et l'octroi d'un soutien temporaire bien ciblé aux ménages vulnérables à la hausse du coût de la vie, en soutenant la croissance et en répondant aux importants besoins d'investissement. Il est fondamental d'accélérer les progrès vers « zéro émission nette » pour renforcer la sécurité énergétique. Le Royaume-Uni fait partie des leaders mondiaux en matière de réduction des émissions nationales de gaz à effet de serre, dispose d'un cadre institutionnel solide et d'un large consensus politique soutenant l'objectif de réduction des émissions nettes à zéro d'ici 2050. Pour continuer à progresser vers la neutralité carbone, il faut que les politiques soient à la hauteur des ambitions. Le développement des instruments de tarification est un élément essentiel pour atteindre les objectifs, mais il peut être encore plus efficace s'il est complété par une réglementation et des subventions sectorielles bien conçues, et plus acceptable s'il est mis en œuvre une fois que les prix de l'énergie ont commencé à baisser par rapport à des niveaux historiquement élevés. Les réformes politiques visant à soutenir la réaffectation économique, la compensation des ménages à faibles revenus et l'investissement dans les infrastructures vertes et les nouvelles technologies peuvent stimuler la croissance de la productivité, contribuer à réduire les disparités entre les régions du Royaume-Uni et accroître l’adhésion du public à la politique climatique.

THÈME SPÉCIFIQUE : ATTEINDRE LE « ZÉRO ÉMISSION NETTE »

The global economy is facing mounting challenges amidst the largest energy market shock since the 1970s and the cost-of-living crisis for many households from rising inflation pressures. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2 highlights the unusually imbalanced and fragile outlook, the significant downside risks associated with energy market developments and rising financial vulnerabilities as interest rates are raised, and the associated policy challenges. Well-designed and timely policy actions are required to maintain economic stability, enhance energy security and strengthen the prospects for future growth.

This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

Luxembourg recovered quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to extensive policy support. However, the impact of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating inflationary pressures, alongside labour market shortages. This highlights the importance of boosting the resilience of the Luxembourgish economy. Longer-term fiscal sustainability challenges should be addressed by improving the efficiency of public spending through regular spending reviews, limiting early exit from the labour market and undertaking much-needed pension reform. Removing disincentives to work and strengthening the effectiveness of active labour market policies, in particular for older workers and disadvantaged youth, would boost employment and lower skill mismatches. Digital skills need to improve and life-long learning should be strengthened. Increasing private R&D spending, improving diffusion of digitalisation, especially for small firms, and reducing the regulatory burden would support productivity growth and economic diversification. Reaching the climate objective of net zero emissions by 2050 will require bold policy action, requiring a clear carbon pricing path and adjustments to urbanisation and transport policies.

SPECIAL FEATURE: SECURING A DYNAMIC AND GREEN ECONOMY