Italy has weathered recent crises well. A strong fiscal policy response, enhanced competitiveness and improved banking sector health have supported growth in recent years. But public debt is high and spending pressures are rising from population ageing, higher interest rates, and the green and digital transitions. A steady fiscal consolidation is needed over several years to put debt on a more prudent path. Growth in spending needs to be contained, but public investment in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan should be protected to minimise adverse effects on growth. The ongoing civil justice and public administration reforms will support growth by raising business investment and facilitating the implementation of public investment plans. Regulatory barriers to competition in services should be reduced. Raising employment, including by expanding access to early childhood education to reduce barriers to female labour market participation, would make growth more inclusive. Additional policy efforts are needed to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Renewable power generation has advanced, but complex permitting procedures that hold back the installation of renewable energy capacity need to be simplified.
SPECIAL FEATURE: Achieving the energy and climate transition
This publication presents guidance for the compilation of distributional results on household income, consumption and saving consistent with national accounts totals. These results are a key input for evidence-based policies targeting inequality and fostering inclusive growth, providing insights into key dimensions of material well-being across household groups. The results complement existing inequality measures by including elements that are often lacking from micro statistics and by providing inequality measures consistent with macroeconomic aggregates, broadening the scope for analyses, while also capturing households and transactions that are typically underrepresented in micro data. Moreover, while the estimates do require a number of statistical choices and assumptions, they have a high degree of international comparability because of the common methodology and their alignment to national accounts results. The handbook provides an overview of the conceptual framework underlying the distributional results and discusses various aspects in relation to the compilation and presentation of the distributional results. It aims to assist compilers in deriving high-quality distributional results and to provide users with more insights into the main benefits of these results as well as into the way that the results have been derived.
L'economia mondiale ha dimostrato di essere resiliente nel 2023, ma alcuni segnali lasciano intravedere una riduzione della crescita, sulla scia degli effetti dell'inasprimento monetario che iniziano a farsi sentire. Si prevede che la crescita globale rimarrà contenuta nel 2024 e nel 2025, con l'inflazione che tornerà all'obiettivo nella maggior parte dei Paesi entro il 2025. I principali rischi a breve termine sono rappresentati dalle tensioni geopolitiche, soprattutto se il conflitto in Medio Oriente dovesse portare a interruzioni nei mercati dell'energia, e dalle incertezze sull'entità dell'impatto a lungo termine dell'aumento dei tassi di interesse.
Secondo il presente Rapporto intermedio la politica monetaria dovrebbe rimanere prudente per garantire che l'inflazione ritorni in modo sostenibile all'obiettivo, sebbene i tassi di riferimento possano essere abbassati man mano che l'inflazione cala. I governi devono adoperarsi per garantire la sostenibilità di bilancio, anche adottando misure per ridurre le future pressioni sulla spesa. Occorrono riforme strutturali per rafforzare le basi di una crescita sostenibile, concentrandosi in via prioritaria sull'accelerazione della decarbonizzazione, sul rilancio del commercio globale e sul potenziamento dei risultati scolastici.
Il Rapporto intermedio fornisce un aggiornamento delle valutazioni riportate nelle Prospettive economiche dell'OCSE, Volume 2023, Numero 2 (n. 114).
The global economy proved resilient in 2023, but there are signs that growth is easing as restrictive monetary policy takes effect. Global growth is projected to remain moderate in 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining towards target in most countries by 2025. Key near term risks include high geopolitical tensions, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East were to disrupt energy markets, and uncertainty about the strength of the ongoing impact from higher interest rates.
The Interim Report says that monetary policy should remain prudent to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, though policy interest rates can be lowered as inflation declines. Governments need to focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, including through measures to reduce future spending pressures. Structural policy reforms are needed to strengthen the foundations for sustainable growth, with key priorities being to accelerate decarbonisation, revive global trade and improve educational outcomes.
The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2 (Number 114).
L’économie mondiale a bien résisté en 2023, mais certains signes indiquent que la croissance a ralenti avec le resserrement de la politique monétaire qui commence à produire ses effets. Selon les projections, la croissance mondiale devrait rester modérée en 2024 et 2025, l’inflation revenant vers son objectif dans la plupart des pays d’ici 2025. Les principaux risques à court terme tiennent aux tensions géopolitiques, surtout si le conflit au Moyen-Orient devait entraîner des perturbations sur les marchés de l’énergie, et aux incertitudes entourant l’ampleur de l’impact du relèvement des taux d’intérêt.
Selon cette édition intermédiaire, la politique monétaire devrait rester prudente pour s’assurer que l’inflation revienne durablement vers l’objectif visé, même si les taux directeurs pourront être abaissés à mesure que l’inflation va diminuer. Les pouvoirs publics doivent avoir pour priorité de garantir la viabilité des finances publiques, notamment en prenant des mesures visant à réduire les tensions futures sur les dépenses. Des réformes structurelles s’imposent pour renforcer les fondements d’une croissance durable, et doivent viser de manière prioritaire à accélérer la décarbonation, à redynamiser les échanges mondiaux et à améliorer les résultats dans le domaine de l’éducation.
Les Perspectives économiques intermédiaires constituent une actualisation de l’évaluation présentée dans les Perspectives économiques de l’OCDE, volume 2023, Numéro 2 (édition numéro 114).
This report presents developments of the work of the Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches (IFCMA) to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, and reflect on the IFCMA’s achievements one year on from its launch in February 2023.
As climate change increases exposure to natural disasters, countries need new solutions to mitigate risks of natural hazards. For many in Asia and the Pacific, mobilising existing resources is not enough: they need to consider a grand design of disaster risk financing strategies. Catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) can be an effective, market-based financing tool for the region. While the global CAT bond market has grown steadily since the 1990s, it remains weakly developed in Asia and the Pacific. Its successful development there requires robust purpose-built legal frameworks; developed general bond markets, especially in local currency; appropriate capacity building; and data-driven pricing models. This report explores each of these conditions along with policy suggestions for fostering them, and discusses the development of multi-country CAT bonds in Asia and the Pacific.
In many countries, public expenditure, including transfers, plays a major role in reducing income inequality. The report reviews the various ways that budgeting can be used to this end. A first includes taking a broad approach to results-based budgeting, taking social and distributional goals into consideration. A second relies on integrating distributional impact analysis directly into the budget process. The report discusses the concrete experience of eight OECD countries in this area, analysing how they are integrating distributional impact assessment in spending and budgeting decisions. Finally, it discusses the tools, frameworks and data that are needed to take distributional considerations into account as part of evidence-informed policy making.
Growth has held up better in Egypt than in neighbouring countries until recently but inflation has reached very high levels and financing conditions have tightened along with foreign currency shortages. In this context, Egypt is stepping up economic reform efforts. The exchange rate needs to become more flexible with monetary policy geared to bring inflation down to target. High public debt makes Egypt more vulnerable to external shocks. Committing to a credible consolidation strategy is key to restore public finance health, which would improve investor confidence and thereby reduce debt servicing costs. While expanding cash transfers to the most vulnerable, broad-based energy subsidies should be phased out, which would also reduce emissions. As public investment has expanded substantially, further efforts to rationalise large-scale construction projects should be pursued, while allocating resources to green investment. To revive private sector growth, the regulatory burden and the state footprint ought to be reduced, and ongoing reforms including the divestment plan should be implemented fully and effectively. As the working-age population will expand with a rising education level, younger generations need to be better integrated into the labour market. This requires reducing labour taxation, enhancing public employment support and better aligning skills to labour market needs.
SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING THE BUSINESS CLIMATE TO REVIVE PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH; PROMOTING BETTER-QUALITY JOB CREATION FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
After a slow recovery from the pandemic, the Mexican economy has navigated well the global environment of tightening financial conditions and heightened uncertainty. Fiscal policy has a robust track record in attaining fiscal targets and keeping public debt low. Higher tax revenues would allow to maintain fiscal prudence and to address important spending needs in productivity enhancing areas, such as education, infrastructure, the digital and green transitions, and the fight against corruption and crime. Mexico has large potential to attract investment from companies looking to relocate their operations to North America. This is also a significant opportunity to spread the benefits of trade throughout the country and to create more and better value chain linkages. Fully harnessing these opportunities will require addressing long-standing challenges related to transport and digital connectivity, regulations or the rule of law, and shifting to renewables. Improving education outcomes and reducing gender gaps and informality would help to continue the recent fall in income inequality, while also strengthening the country’s growth potential. Improving access to adequate housing and more coordination across, urban, housing and transport infrastructure policies would enhance Mexicans’ living conditions, reduce urban sprawl and improve urban mobility.
SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPROVING HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
This report presents a comprehensive overview of recent and longer-term trends in productivity levels and growth in OECD countries and selected G20 economies. The different chapters feature an analysis of latest developments in productivity, economic growth, sectoral reallocation, investment, labour productivity by firm size and labour income. This edition also includes a special chapter providing insights of productivity developments in 2023 based on experimental estimates for 38 OECD countries.
After a strong demand-based recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity declined amid high inflation. Growth has restarted in mid-2023 and inflation is receding, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work hand-in-hand to fight remaining inflationary pressures and recreate fiscal space to finance future spending needs.
Productivity growth has slowed since the mid-2000s and structural reforms that facilitate new firm entry and exit and a wider take-up of digital tools are needed. Recent reforms to the anti-corruption and public integrity framework will sustain investor confidence if they are fully implemented.
Social transfers keep income inequalities and poverty low but should be better targeted to those most in need. Women face large employment and pay gaps compared to men and intergenerational mobility is limited. Further expanding access to childcare facilities for young children and improving the education system would help to address these challenges.
Hungary’s green transition can build on past progress but needs to accelerate. This will require more electricity supply from low-carbon sources, with price signals acting as a catalyst. Restructuring energy support by moving from price caps to more targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households would strengthen incentives for energy efficiency improvements and reduce fiscal costs.
SPECIAL FEATURE: GREEN TRANSITION
Romania’s economy withstood significant adverse shocks in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis. Tackling high inflation is the immediate task for macroeconomic policy. Fiscal consolidation would complement restrictive monetary policy in keeping demand at sustainable levels. Greater tax revenues are needed to stabilise the public debt burden while funding priority spending – including on critical infrastructure, pensions, health care and the education system. Productivity growth is a powerful engine for lifting living standards but sustaining it will require a sound investment climate backed by strong competition, predictable policymaking, financial inclusion and effective controls against corruption. Romania’s Recovery and Resilience Plan is helping drive reform. More policy focus is needed on addressing disparate socio-economic outcomes within Romania and to lift employment among groups underrepresented in formal work, including women. Faster progress is also required to decarbonise the economy by 2050. Romania needs more renewable power and big energy savings to reduce fossil fuel use. Energy-efficient buildings, better transport systems and consistent price signals for abatement are also needed. Efficient and fair policies can limit costs from the net-zero transition, shield affected communities from hardship, and prepare people for changing climates.
SPECIAL FEATURE : DECARBONISING ROMANIA'S ECONOMY
The 2024 edition of Government at a Glance: Latin America and the Caribbean provides the latest available evidence on public administrations and their performance in the LAC region and compares it to OECD countries. It includes indicators on trust in public institutions and satisfaction with public services, as well as evidence on good governance practices in areas such as the policy cycle, budgeting, public procurement, infrastructure planning and delivery, regulatory governance, digital government and open government data. Finally, it provides information on what resources public institutions use and how they are managed, including public finances, public employment, and human resources management. Government at a Glance allows for cross-country comparisons and helps identify trends, best practices, and areas for improvement in the public sector. Governance indicators are especially useful for monitoring and benchmarking governments’ progress in their public sector reforms. Each indicator in the publication is presented in a user‑friendly format, consisting of graphs and/or charts illustrating variations across countries and over time, brief descriptive analyses highlighting the major findings of the data, and a methodological section on the definition of the indicator and any limitations in data comparability.
La edición 2024 de Panorama de las Administraciones Públicas: América Latina y el Caribe ofrece los datos disponibles más recientes sobre las administraciones públicas y su desempeño en la región de ALC y los compara con los países de la OCDE. Incluye indicadores sobre la confianza en las instituciones públicas y la satisfacción con los servicios públicos, así como evidencia sobre las prácticas de buen gobierno en áreas como la gobernanza del ciclo de políticas públicas, gobierno abierto, gobernanza regulatoria, prácticas y procedimientos presupuestarios, gestión de la contratación pública, planificación y ejecución de infraestructuras, y gobierno digital y datos abiertos gubernamentales. Por último, proporciona información sobre qué recursos utilizan las instituciones públicas y cómo se gestionan, incluidas las finanzas públicas, el empleo público y la gestión de los recursos humanos. Panorama de las Administraciones Públicas permite realizar comparaciones entre países y ayuda a identificar tendencias, mejores prácticas y áreas de mejora en el sector público. Los indicadores de gobernanza son especialmente útiles para el seguimiento y la evaluación comparativa del progreso de los gobiernos en sus reformas del sector público. Cada indicador de la publicación se presenta en un formato de fácil manejo, que consiste en gráficos o tablas que ilustran las variaciones de los países y a lo largo del tiempo, breves análisis descriptivos que destacan las principales conclusiones de los datos, y una sección metodológica sobre la definición del indicador y cualquier limitación en la comparabilidad de los datos.
La Suisse a fait preuve de résilience face à la pandémie, aux turbulences géopolitiques et aux conséquences sur les marchés de l'énergie. Le chômage et l'inflation sont faibles et le niveau de vie est l'un des plus élevés de l'OCDE. Cette situation est renforcée par une économie de marché dynamique, une main-d'œuvre hautement qualifiée et des politiques macroéconomiques prudentes. Cependant, le ralentissement de la croissance et la persistance des pressions sur les prix présentent des défis. Une politique monétaire stricte est nécessaire pour garantir que l'inflation reste durablement dans la fourchette cible de la banque centrale. Bien qu'une position budgétaire globalement neutre soit justifiée à court terme, les pressions budgétaires à plus long terme exigent des réformes structurelles pour contrer le coût croissant du vieillissement et pour soutenir la transition verte. Des incitations plus fortes et des processus d'approbation plus rapides sont nécessaires pour réduire efficacement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Le marché du travail est solide et le taux de chômage faible. Pourtant, les pénuries de compétences s'aggravent. L'allongement de la durée de la vie professionnelle, l'amélioration des incitations pour les mères à participer plus intensément au marché du travail et la migration de travailleurs étrangers qualifiés peuvent atténuer les pénuries. L'amélioration des conditions-cadres et le maintien de l'accès aux marchés étrangers, tout en s'abstenant de restrictions commerciales et de politiques industrielles distorsives, renforceront la résilience économique. Une forte concurrence intérieure et un meilleur environnement commercial renforceront la position de la Suisse en tant que plaque tournante mondiale pour les entreprises, les investissements et la recherche.
CHAPITRE THÉMATIQUE : RENFORCER LA RÉSILIENCE ÉCONOMIQUE AU SEIN DES CHAÎNES DE VALEUR MONDIALES
Switzerland has proved resilient through the pandemic, geopolitical turmoil and reverberations in energy markets. Unemployment and inflation are low, and living standards are among the highest in the OECD. This is reinforced by a dynamic market-based economy, highly skilled workforce and prudent macroeconomic policies. Yet, slowing growth amid continued price pressures pose challenges. A tight monetary policy is necessary to ensure that inflation remains durably within the central bank’s target range. Although a broadly neutral fiscal stance is warranted in the short term, longer-term fiscal pressures call for structural reform to counter rising cost of ageing and to support the green transition. Stronger incentives and speedier approval processes are needed to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The labour market is strong and unemployment low. Yet, skills shortages are rising. Longer working lives, improved incentives for mothers to participate more intensively in the labour market and migration of skilled foreign workers can mitigate the shortages. Improving framework conditions and maintaining access to foreign markets, while refraining from trade restrictions and distortive industrial policies, will strengthen economic resilience. Strong domestic competition and a better business environment will further reinforce Switzerland’s position as a global hub for business, investment and research.
SPECIAL FEATURE: STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE WITHIN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
This roadmap is designed to aid North Macedonia’s government in establishing a solid policy foundation for a successful transition to a circular economy.
As an EU candidate country, North Macedonia has pledged to align with European climate objectives, endorsing the Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, with a particular focus on the circular economy transition. Acknowledging the pivotal role of this transition in national and regional development and actively addressing challenges posed by climate change, reliance on imported raw materials and increased waste, North Macedonia is ready for a strategic framework and concrete actions to initiate this transformative process.
Derived from a comprehensive diagnostic of North Macedonia’s circular economy landscape, the roadmap strategically integrates existing policy initiatives, fostering synergies across sectors, measures and involved actors. It emphasises five key areas – circular business models for SMEs, construction, biomass and food, textile industry and mining and metallurgy – revealing over 40 policy recommendations. These recommendations, supported by a monitoring framework, are poised to be a cornerstone for propelling North Macedonia towards a more sustainable and circular future.
The Slovak economy has been relatively resilient to the energy crisis, but growth has slowed amid high inflation, weakening foreign demand and tightening financial conditions. The pandemic and the energy crisis have deteriorated public finances; steady fiscal consolidation is now needed to rebuild fiscal buffers and improve long-term fiscal sustainability in the face of rapid population ageing. Sustaining economic convergence and facilitating inclusive structural change requires improving skill provision at all stages of the learning cycle, fostering the domestic innovation capacity and improving the business environment. A more consistent pricing of carbon across the economy and stronger incentives for green investment and innovation would make growth more sustainable. Improving housing affordability requires structural reforms to improve the efficiency of the housing market, property tax reforms, and targeted support to vulnerable households. Incentives for housing renovation must be strengthened to address energy poverty and achieve environmental goals.
SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING HOUSING MARKET CHALLENGES
Le Japon a bien résisté au double choc provoqué par la pandémie et la crise énergétique. Cependant, d’importantes difficultés liées à la faiblesse de la croissance mondiale, aux tensions géopolitiques et à l’inflation élevée montrent bien l’importance de renforcer la résilience de l’économie japonaise aux chocs. Dans un contexte marqué par une inflation qui est aujourd’hui supérieure à son objectif et par les pressions causées par la divergence des politiques monétaires entre le Japon et les pays comparables, les autorités ont commencé à ajuster les paramètres de leur politique monétaire. Compte tenu du niveau élevé de la dette publique, il est essentiel d’assainir les finances publiques en vue de reconstituer des marges de manœuvre budgétaires, en s’appuyant sur un cadre budgétaire à moyen terme crédible propre à inscrire le ratio dette/PIB sur une trajectoire clairement descendante. Toujours dans une optique de viabilité à long terme, le Japon devra réduire ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre, conformément aux objectifs fixés par les autorités nationales, en combinant investissements verts, mesures d’innovation et tarification du carbone. Il est par ailleurs essentiel de mettre en œuvre des réformes destinées à améliorer le cadre de l’innovation et les incitations destinées aux start-ups pour stimuler la productivité et remédier aux tensions liées au vieillissement démographique. La suppression des obstacles à l’emploi des femmes et des seniors ainsi qu’un recours accru à la main-d’œuvre étrangère sont également indispensables pour contrer l’évolution défavorable de la situation démographique. Le renforcement de la situation financière des jeunes et des mesures de soutien aux familles et aux enfants, notamment l’amélioration du congé parental, contribuerait à inverser la tendance à la baisse du taux de fécondité.
CHAPITRE THÉMATIQUE : FAIRE FACE AUX DIFFICULTÉS DÉMOGRAPHIQUES