Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in trade and supply chains, weighing on economic growth. Economic convergence had already slowed down before the pandemic, calling for accelerating structural reforms. Rising spending pressures related to defence, internal security, health and old age poverty need to be addressed by raising spending efficiency and tax revenue, while the tax burden should be shifted from labour towards other income, property, and environmental taxes. Continuing to improve the capacity of the public sector, fostering investment and innovation and addressing skilled labour shortages are key for raising potential growth. Low credit supply is a main factor for weak investment and should be tackled by fostering competition and deepening capital markets. High informality, which hinders access to finance and distorts the level playing field, should be addressed by reducing labour taxes for low-wage earners, improving tax enforcement and continuing to fight corruption. Strengthening the power of the Competition Council to enforce competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and challenge regulation that restricts competition would help to foster business dynamism and innovation. Addressing skilled labour shortages will require facilitating skilled migration and investing more in human capital.

SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT GROWTH

There are signs that the global outlook has begun to brighten. Activity remains more resilient than expected, although with considerable divergence across economies, inflation is falling steadily and unemployment remains low. Global growth is projected to remain unchanged in 2024 and strengthen modestly in 2025, with inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025. Risks around the outlook are becoming better balanced, but substantial uncertainty remains. High geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could disrupt energy and financial markets, causing inflation to spike and growth to falter. Elevated debt service burdens could rise further as low-yielding debt is rolled over, exposing financial vulnerabilities. Inflation might prove more persistent than anticipated but could also fade faster if strong labour force growth continues. The key policy priorities are to ensure a durable reduction in inflation, establish a fiscal path that will address rising pressures, and undertake reforms to raise sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as China and India. It comprises three parts: a regional economic monitor, a thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region, and a series of country notes.

The 2024 edition discusses the region’s macroeconomic challenges such as external headwinds, impacts of El Niño and elevated levels of private debt. The thematic chapter focuses on strategies to cope with more frequent disasters. Emerging Asia is among the world’s most disaster-prone regions, and the threat of disasters, such as floods, storms, earthquakes and droughts, is increasing. The report explores how countries can reduce disaster risks and improve resilience by developing a comprehensive approach involving policy measures such as improving governance and institutional capacity, ensuring adequate budgets and broadening financing options, strengthening disaster-related education, improving land planning, investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure and disaster-related technology, improving health responses, and facilitating the role of the private sector.

Certains signes montrent que les perspectives mondiales ont commencé à s’éclaircir. L’activité reste plus résiliente que prévu, bien qu’avec des divergences considérables entre les économies, tandis que l’inflation diminue régulièrement et le chômage reste peu élevé. Selon les projections, la croissance mondiale devrait rester stable en 2024 et se redresser légèrement en 2025, l’inflation revenant vers son objectif dans la plupart des pays d’ici 2025. Les risques entourant les perspectives sont en train de se rééquilibrer, mais d’importantes incertitudes subsistent. Les fortes tensions géopolitiques, notamment au Moyen-Orient, pourraient venir perturber les marchés de l’énergie et les marchés financiers, entraînant une envolée de l’inflation et un ralentissement de la croissance. Le service de la dette, qui représente déjà une charge élevée, pourrait s’alourdir encore au fur et à mesure du refinancement des emprunts à faible rendement, mettant au jour des vulnérabilités financières. L’inflation pourrait s’avérer plus persistante que prévu, mais pourrait aussi se replier plus rapidement si la croissance de la main-d’œuvre reste soutenue. Les principales priorités de l’action publique consistent à faire baisser durablement l’inflation, à définir une trajectoire budgétaire qui permettra de faire face à la montée des tensions et à engager des réformes pour favoriser une croissance durable et inclusive à moyen terme.

La présente édition comporte une évaluation générale de la situation économique mondiale et un chapitre résumant les évolutions et fournissant des projections par pays. Tous les pays membres de l’OCDE sont examinés, ainsi que certaines économies partenaires.

After a strong recovery from the pandemic, the New Zealand economy has slowed, with higher interest rates weighing on housing construction, and inflation undermining purchasing power and consumption. Monetary policy has tightened significantly since late 2021 and proved efficient at reining in inflation. Better control of government spending is needed to keep fiscal consolidation on track in the short run and restore fiscal space for ageing-related expenditures and the green transition in the long run. New Zealand also faces an investment gap in addressing the needs of a rapidly growing population.

Improving competition policies and streamlining the regulatory environment would help revive productivity growth and lift living standards in the long run. As highlighted by the recent OECD PISA study, achievement in school education has declined markedly. Inequality remains high and attendance has dropped. There is an urgent need to improve the curriculum, reform teacher education and strengthen support to teachers and schools to deliver better education outcomes. Adapting to climate change will require maintaining high insurance coverage for climate-related losses as well as changes to land-use planning and a comprehensive long-run energy strategy. The green transition needs a more rigorous cost-benefit assessment of emission reduction options.

Special features: Competition, School Education, Climate Change

Estonian living standards have doubled since 2000 and income convergence was steady prior to the pandemic, although per capita GDP and productivity remain below the OECD averages. The economy experienced a severe downturn due to disruptions in trade, weaker export demand, high inflation and tight monetary conditions. With improvements in external demand, growth should start to recover this year. Fiscal policy needs to balance stabilisation of the economy with narrowing the budget deficit. Although a part of the deficit reflects cyclical conditions, expenditures have increased in recent years. Alongside the planned spending reviews, Estonia should review the tax system to explore avenues for increasing revenues in the medium term. Further convergence in living standards requires strengthening productivity growth by boosting digitalisation, innovation, and skills across all firms. Due to continued reliance on domestic oil shale and increasing emissions in several sectors, decarbonisation needs to accelerate. Health and life expectancy have improved significantly, but years spent in good health are still among the lowest in the OECD. While the health system is well designed, a special chapter of this report looks at areas for improvement in order to enhance health outcomes.

SPECIAL FEATURE: TOWARDS BETTER AND MORE SUSTAINABLE HEALTHCARE FOR ALL

Après une lente reprise postpandémique, l'économie mexicaine a bien navigué dans un environnement mondial de resserrement des conditions financières et d'incertitude accrue. La politique fiscale a un solide historique dans l'atteinte des objectifs fiscaux et le maintien d'une dette publique faible. Des revenus fiscaux plus élevés permettraient de maintenir la prudence fiscale et de répondre aux besoins de dépenses importants dans des domaines qui renforcent la productivité, tels que l'éducation, l'infrastructure, les transitions numérique et verte, ainsi que la lutte contre la corruption et la criminalité. Le Mexique a un grand potentiel pour attirer des investissements de sociétés cherchant à délocaliser leurs opérations en Amérique du Nord. Cela représente également une opportunité significative de répartir les bénéfices du commerce à travers le pays et de créer plus et de meilleurs liens dans la chaîne de valeur. Exploiter pleinement ces opportunités nécessitera de s'attaquer aux défis de longue date liés à la connectivité des transports et numérique, aux régulations ou à l'état de droit, et à la transition vers les énergies renouvelables. Améliorer les résultats éducatifs et réduire les écarts de genre et l'informalité contribuerait à poursuivre la récente baisse de l'inégalité de revenus, tout en renforçant le potentiel de croissance du pays. Améliorer l'accès à un logement adéquat et plus de coordination entre les politiques urbaines, de logement et d'infrastructure de transport améliorerait les conditions de vie des Mexicains, réduirait l'étalement urbain et améliorerait la mobilité urbaine.

CHAPITRE THÉMATIQUE : AMÉLIORATION DES POLITIQUES DE LOGEMENT ET DE DÉVELOPPEMENT URBAIN.

Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has made significant headway on its development path over the past three decades. The country’s sustained economic growth has been led by booming commodity exports and substantial inflows of external financing. Many Laotians have seen significant improvements in their well-being. Poverty has declined as household income has increased, and many important development goals in education and health have been achieved.

In the face of macroeconomic challenges, a shift from commodity-driven growth to a more inclusive prosperity paradigm that emphasises the creation of broad-based opportunities, human capital development and green sustainability can unlock Lao PDR’s future development. This report presents priorities for overcoming the country’s current fiscal constraints and finding ways to fund this shift. Recommendations address strengthening Lao PDR’s sustainable finance and debt management, revenue generation and tax reform, investment promotion, and data capacity in order to tap into green finance mechanisms.

Norway’s economy is slowing as inflation and higher interest rates weigh on consumption and investment. The labour market is tight and wage growth robust, while labour shortages and job mismatches are high and rising. Inflation is falling but still way above the target of 2%. The fiscal stance is expansionary. It should become contractionary to support monetary policy. While Norway is one of the OECD’s most productive countries, productivity growth over the past decade has been weak. Making skills more relevant, notably by strengthening vocational education and training, could help raise productivity and ease tight labour markets. Higher and broader taxation of greenhouse gas emissions and investing in lower‑cost emission cuts would help achieve emission reductions more efficiently. Public spending as a share of GDP is the highest in the OECD, which brings important benefits in the form of high-quality public services. However, oil revenues are set to decline, and ageing costs to rise, foreshadowing strains on public finances in the future. Norway could benefit from applying a medium-term expenditure framework, introducing a spending rule, and establishing a full-fledged fiscal council. Reforming the very generous sickness and disability scheme could help reduce spending pressures and increase employment. Regional policy should become more cost-conscious. Infrastructure investment is very high, and imposing a minimum benefit-cost ratio on individual projects and strengthening ex-post evaluations could help improve its effectiveness.

SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC SPENDING

A circular economy keeps the value of resources in the economy for longer, extends the useful lifespan of products and reduces waste, thereby reducing environmental and climatic pressures and increasing domestic competitiveness. Italy is among the leading European actors in transitioning to a circular economy. Its adoption of the National Strategy for the Circular Economy in 2022 reinforced the country’s ambition to rapidly shift from linear to circular modes of production and consumption. Among the envisioned measures, the national strategy calls for a stronger use of economic instruments to achieve a more coherent and effective policy mix.

This report identifies opportunities for the enhanced use of economic instruments to support the circular economy in Italy. Part I of this report takes stock of the Italian policy landscape, compares it to international practices and recommends seven policy reforms for further consideration. Part II contains an in-depth analysis of three policy instruments that could reduce demand for virgin materials and promote a shift to secondary materials. These instruments include a virgin materials tax on construction minerals, a reduced VAT rate for products with recycled content and corporate tax credits to promote the use of secondary materials.

The United States economy has continued to expand at a solid pace and price pressures have eased somewhat. However, a sustained fiscal deficit has contributed to raising public debt as a share of GDP to its highest level since World War II, with a further substantial increase in prospect over coming decades as the population ages. To put the public finances on a more sustainable path, a multi-year fiscal adjustment should be enacted that achieves savings on pensions and healthcare and raises taxation, including on capital incomes. A more medium-term oriented and less complicated federal budgeting process would support this. At the same time, economic growth would benefit from productivity enhancing reforms that promote competition, including through maintaining international trade openness and reinforcing relevant skills in the workforce. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated, but further policy measures will be needed to achieve emission reduction targets. Policy options include a package of broad-based carbon pricing, taxes and sectoral policies. As the climate transition further progresses, additional measures will be needed to support displaced workers from fossil fuel industries and for climate adaptation.

SPECIAL FEATURE: MANAGING FISCAL PRESSURES IN THE UNITED STATES

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making.

This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations.

The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.