OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
- Discontinued
The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.
- Semiannual
- ISSN: 19952899 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/19952899
Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy
This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.
Keywords: Coincident and Leading Indicators, Business Cycles, Common Features, Latent Factor Analysis
JEL codes: C32, E32
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