1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

Factors Behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates

Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and . especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors. portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, .petro-dollar. recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The paper finds that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist.

English

Keywords: bond spread, term premia, credibility, financial markets, inflation expectation, current account, saving-investment balance, pension fund, bond yield, monetary policy, reserve accumulation, risk premia, capital flows, portfolio preferences, neutral rate, interest rate, petro-dollar
JEL: G11: Financial Economics / General Financial Markets / Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions; G15: Financial Economics / General Financial Markets / International Financial Markets; F2: International Economics / International Factor Movements and International Business; E43: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Money and Interest Rates / Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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