OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
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Portugal
Activity contracted in the second half of 2002, reflecting falling domestic demand and exports. Although lagging that of the euro area, a gradual recovery is projected in 2003 mainly driven by external demand. While narrowing slightly, the output gap is projected to remain large in 2004. Against this background, the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area is expected to narrow significantly.
Despite recent progress, the need for fiscal consolidation remains the main priority facing the authorities. Forceful implementation of recent structural measures will be required to rein in public spending.
Also available in: French
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