OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2011 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains three special chapters. The first covers prospects for growth & imbalances beyond the short-term, the second covers return to work after the crisis, and the third examines counter cyclical economic policy.
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United Kingdom
The recovery is gaining traction, supported by improving financial conditions, rebounding exports and a temporary surge in stockbuilding. High inflation and lingering effects from the credit crunch, together with necessary fiscal tightening, will nevertheless keep growth subdued in 2010. The recovery will gain momentum in 2011 when household consumption and business investment start to grow more robustly. The unemployment rate is set to peak in mid-2010 and fall slowly thereafter. Inflation is high, but is projected to fall below the 2% target, once the temporary effects of the increase in the VAT rate wane, due to significant economic slack.
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