OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled “Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation?
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Russian Federation
The post-crisis economic recovery has been solid but unspectacular, and growth over the projection horizon of 4-4½ per cent is expected to reduce the degree of slack in the economy, with the output gap closing in 2012. Inflation has been pushed higher by a food price shock, but underlying pressures are likely to remain contained. The current account surplus is projected to roughly halve between 2010 and 2012 as import volume growth outstrips that of exports by a large margin. Public expenditure restraint is expected to shrink the budget deficit to near zero by 2012, with public debt levels remaining low.
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