GDP growth is projected to rise to almost 2% in 2016 and 2017, despite a slowdown in several emerging markets. Activity will continue to be supported by sustained monetary stimulus, a broadly neutral fiscal stance and lower oil prices. High private indebtedness will remain a drag on consumption and investment in many countries. Unemployment will decline only gradually, and the stark differences across countries within the euro area will persist. Inflation should edge up to just under 1½ per cent by the end of the projection horizon as the effects of cheaper energy wane and cyclical slack decreases, even though high uncertainties surround inflation projections.