OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a series of focus notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Germany
The export-dependent economy has taken a substantial hit from the stagnation of global trade, with declines in export orders and industrial production. After expanding by an estimated 0.6% in 2019, GDP is projected to grow only by 0.4% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. Continuing trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty are weighing on business confidence and investment. Private consumption and construction are expected to stay resilient, but weaknesses in manufacturing will spill over to the rest of the economy. However, in light of the shortage of skilled labour and programmes to support flexibility in working hours, large deteriorations in the labour market are not expected.
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