The COVID-19 crisis is hitting the economy hard, with adverse consequences on activity, jobs and incomes. Lower revenues from tourism and worker remittances and collapsing export demand are adding to the impact of strict containment measures on domestic demand and activity. The large fiscal package aimed at protecting people and jobs, coupled with emergency funding from multilateral institutions, the formation of a new government which reduces political uncertainty, the fall in oil prices and the start of the Nawara gas field all support growth and reduce social costs. In the double-hit scenario, which assumes a second virus outbreak later in the year, GDP is projected to fall by 8.2% in 2020. In the more benign single-hit scenario, where a renewed outbreak is avoided, GDP would fall by 6%.