OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
France
France is facing a deep recession, as consumption and investment fell sharply during the confinement period. If the pandemic is contained by the summer, real GDP will fall by about 11.4% in 2020 and rebound by 7.7% in 2021. Yet, if there is a second virus outbreak in autumn, GDP is projected to decrease by 14.1% in 2020 and to rebound by 5.2% in 2021. Policy measures such as the strengthened short‑time work scheme will help contain the rise in the unemployment rate, but it is set to peak at respectively 12.4% and 13.7% by end‑2020 in the two scenarios. Despite government support, investment and consumption will recover only progressively since high uncertainty is set to persist. The fiscal deficit will reach 10.4% and 12.0% of GDP in 2020 in the two scenarios, and the downturn will push the debt‑to‑GDP ratio (Maastricht definition) to 116% and 126% by end‑2021.
Also available in: French
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