OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
United Kingdom
The COVID-19 crisis has led to a severe economic contraction. GDP is projected to fall by 14% in 2020 if there is a second virus outbreak later in the year (the double-hit scenario). An equally likely single-hit scenario would still see GDP fall sharply by 11.5%. In the double-hit scenario, the unemployment rate is set to more than double to 10% and remain elevated throughout 2021, despite widespread use of furloughing. Measures to limit the effects of the crisis in that scenario would push the fiscal deficit up to at least 14% of GDP in 2020.
Also available in: French
- Click to access:
-
Click to download PDF - 541.57KBPDF