The economy is entering a deep recession, the worst in a century, driven by domestic confinement measures necessary to limit the spread of COVID-19, the global economic contraction, lower oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Should a second outbreak occur in late 2020 GDP will decrease by 7.9% in 2020 and a slow gradual recovery will be delayed to 2021. If the pandemic is tamed after the current outbreak, GDP is expected to fall by 6.1% in 2020. The recovery will be moderate, led by improvements in consumer confidence and a gradual recovery of investment helped by a lower corporate tax burden introduced in a 2019 tax reform. A weak external environment will keep trade depressed and raise vulnerability to already low commodity prices.