OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Italy
GDP is projected to fall by 14% in 2020 before recovering by 5.3% in 2021 if there is another virus outbreak later this year (the double‑hit scenario). If further outbreaks are avoided (the single‑hit scenario), GDP is projected to fall by 11.3% in 2020 and to recover by 7.7% in 2021. While Italy’s industrial production may restart quickly as confinement measures are lifted, tourism and many consumer‑related services are projected to recover more gradually, weighing on demand. The COVID-19 outbreak and containment measures will leave output lower at the end of 2021 in both scenarios than at the start of the crisis and will reverse the gains in employment of recent years.
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