The economy was growing robustly before the pandemic shock, but in 2020 faces the largest contraction since the late 1990s. While the two‑month confinement has been lifted, a rapid recovery is unlikely given continued distancing measures, the vulnerable position of households, and pervasive uncertainty as well as weak external demand, especially from Europe. A second COVID‑19 wave in 2020 (the double-hit scenario) would lead to an economic contraction of about 8% and of 0.3% in 2021. Unemployment would in this event almost double after employment had reached historical highs in 2019. On the positive side, the country seems to have to date contained the virus, with a low number of reported deaths. If the virus outbreak subsides by the summer (the single‑hit scenario), a more rapid recovery in private consumption and investment would lead to a lower output contraction of 7.1% in 2020.