OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Greece
The COVID‑19 pandemic and containment measures are projected to reduce GDP by 8% in 2020 if there are no further virus outbreaks (the single‑hit scenario), before it recovers by 4.5% in 2021. In there is a second virus outbreak later in the year (the double-hit scenario), the fall in GDP in 2020 will amount to 9.8%. The losses in output, employment and the budgetary costs from this crisis are projected to be less severe than the crises over 2009‑16. While Greece has contained the pandemic effectively, the negative impact on tourism, investment and public finances is a setback to Greece’s longer‑term recovery.
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