OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Norway
Norway’s mainland GDP is projected to fall by 8.7% in 2020 if there is a new virus outbreak later in the year and associated shutdown (the double-hit scenario) and by 7% if this is avoided (the single-hit scenario). The recovery will be muted in both scenarios, and output will not reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2021. Similarly, unemployment will not have returned to pre-crisis levels. A sharp increase in the mainland’s fiscal deficit will imply a substantial drawdown from the wealth fund. Weak demand will push consumer price inflation down.
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