OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
France
After a strong rebound in 2021, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023. The early 2022 COVID-19 wave, the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have dented economic prospects. Headline inflation is expected to reach 5.2% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023, lowering household purchasing power and consumption growth. The decline in business and household confidence, weaker global economic conditions and high uncertainty will hold back investment and exports. Wages will accelerate, owing to high labour-market shortages and minimum-wage indexation. With slowing employment gains, the unemployment rate will progressively rise to 8%.
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