OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
China
Economic growth will slide to 4.4% in 2022 and rebound to 4.9% in 2023. Amid mounting headwinds, growth will be supported by investment in the climate transition and the frontloading of infrastructure projects. Real estate investment will remain weak due to the continuing defaults across developers and falling price expectations. Exports will remain relatively strong as companies continue to raise their market shares. Adverse confidence effects related to continuing lockdowns coupled with inadequate social protection will weigh on consumption. China’s large oil and grain reserves will mitigate the impact of rising global energy and food prices.
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