OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
Portugal
Real GDP is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023. Robust public investment, boosted by EU funds, and the return of tourism exports are set to support the recovery. Yet, the war in Ukraine, supply-chain disruptions and increases in energy and commodity prices will weigh on activity, lowering confidence and purchasing power. Although spare capacity remains, increases in energy and food prices are expected to push inflation to 6.3% in 2022 and 4% in 2023. Wages will accelerate as hours worked reach pre-pandemic levels, but not enough to protect households’ purchasing power against rising inflation.
Also available in: Portuguese, French
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