OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2
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The global economy continues to confront the challenges of persistent inflation and subdued growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt. The slowdown is projected to be mild, with continued disinflation, but a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the potential for disruptions to commodity markets and trade from heightened geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, and the extent to which excess household savings will be run down. Key policy priorities are to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, address mounting fiscal pressures, revive global trade and improve the prospects for sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.
This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
Also available in: French
South Africa
GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.7% in 2023 before increasing by 1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Investment in machinery and equipment for energy production will remain strong, despite tighter financing conditions. Net exports will weigh on growth as most machinery and equipment are imported and external demand has weakened. Private consumption growth will ease amid still high inflation and lower household purchasing power but will remain positive, helped by employment returning to its pre‑COVID‑19 level. Inflation will gradually return to the target range, although risks remain to the upside.
Also available in: French
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