OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2
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The global economy continues to confront the challenges of persistent inflation and subdued growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt. The slowdown is projected to be mild, with continued disinflation, but a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the potential for disruptions to commodity markets and trade from heightened geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, and the extent to which excess household savings will be run down. Key policy priorities are to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, address mounting fiscal pressures, revive global trade and improve the prospects for sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.
This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
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GDP is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Domestic demand will be the key driver of growth. Private consumption and investment growth will moderate due to tight financial conditions and persistent inflation in 2024, before picking up in 2025. External demand will be less supportive of growth than in previous years. Inflation is projected to slightly increase to 3.7% in 2024, before decreasing to 2.3% in 2025.
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