OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2024 Issue 1
An unfolding recovery
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There are signs that the global outlook has begun to brighten. Activity remains more resilient than expected, although with considerable divergence across economies, inflation is falling steadily and unemployment remains low. Global growth is projected to remain unchanged in 2024 and strengthen modestly in 2025, with inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025. Risks around the outlook are becoming better balanced, but substantial uncertainty remains. High geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could disrupt energy and financial markets, causing inflation to spike and growth to falter. Elevated debt service burdens could rise further as low-yielding debt is rolled over, exposing financial vulnerabilities. Inflation might prove more persistent than anticipated but could also fade faster if strong labour force growth continues. The key policy priorities are to ensure a durable reduction in inflation, establish a fiscal path that will address rising pressures, and undertake reforms to raise sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.
This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
Also available in: French
Editorial: Los comienzos de una recuperación
En la economía mundial ha comenzado a cundir un prudente optimismo, a pesar del crecimiento modesto y de la persistente sombra que proyectan los riesgos geopolíticos. La inflación está disminuyendo más rápido de lo que se preveía y los mercados de trabajo siguen fuertes, con el desempleo en mínimos históricos o cerca de ellos. La confianza del sector privado está mejorando. Sin embargo, los efectos de las condiciones monetarias más restrictivas se están dejando sentir, especialmente en los mercados de la vivienda y del crédito.
Also available in: French, Italian, Portuguese, German, English
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