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2021 OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2021

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic forced most euro area economies into repeated lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 that lead the euro area into its deepest recession on record. The policy reaction to the crisis was large and rapid. It included, among others, significant monetary and fiscal stimuli, but also an ambitious European plan (“Next Generation EU”) to promote economic recovery financed by joint borrowing. However, a durable recovery will require the completion of an ambitious reform agenda, including to the economic architecture of the currency union. This Survey has three main messages. Firstly, monetary and fiscal policy accommodation should continue as long as necessary for the recovery to become firmly established and inflation to return to the central bank objective. Secondly, the planned discussion of the European fiscal framework is key to buttress macro-economic policy in Europe. Fiscal rules need to be evaluated with the aim to better ensure sustainable government finances, sufficient counter-cyclicality and greater ownership. Thirdly, the risk of divergence among euro area members following the COVID-19 crisis needs to be addressed by considering the establishment of a common fiscal capacity, completing the Banking Union, deepening the Capital Markets Union (CMU), and encouraging reforms of domestic labour markets.

SPECIAL FEATURE: CYCLICAL CONVERGENCE

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Fostering cyclical convergence in the euro area

During the first decade of the currency union, business cycle fluctuations among euro area countries were relatively synchronised and similar in magnitude. This concordance disappeared during the 2008 financial turmoil and the following European sovereign debt crisis, a time when key flaws in the architecture of the euro area became apparent. The recovery helped reduce cross-country differences in unemployment and output gaps, but countries worst hit by the crisis took much longer to recover, and in some cases negative consequences of shocks became entrenched. The COVID-19 crisis could lead to a resurgence in euro area cyclical di-synchronisation, risking to exacerbate economic divergence among member states and putting to the test the macroeconomic stability of the currency union. Diverging cyclical paths among euro area countries originate from differences in economic structures and domestic institutions. However, such differences are compounded by features in the economic policy architecture of the currency union – such as the lack of a common fiscal stabilisation tool – and by remaining frictions in the functioning of the common labour and financial markets. Reforms to the common euro area economic policy framework combined with those to improve labour and capital mobility across euro area members are needed to foster cyclical convergence in the currency union.

English Also available in: French

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